President Trump is at it again signing executive orders this week. One of them had to do with making flag burning unconstitutional. I do not need to cover that executive order today because I already covered it in 2016. There was another executive order that Trump signed this week about cashless bail, threatening to cut off funding for those jurisdictions that implement cashless bail.
Cashless bail is a system that allows criminals accused of a crime to be released before trial without having to pay money. It is meant to be a system that is based on risk to public safety rather than ability to pay bail. Trump finds that cashless bail is a threat to order and public safety, not to mention a drain on public finances. That is why Trump's executive order will restrict the "Federal policies and resources" to jurisdictions with cashless bail policies.
For some conservative policy groups who are for cash bail, cashless bail is a system that prioritizes the rights of violent offenders over the general public while releasing repeat offenders with impunity. Forgetting questionable constitutionality for a moment, disincentivizing cashless bail is an unwise move that does not help with reducing crime, has disparate impact on minorities, and is a waste of taxpayer dollars.
Effects on Crime and Public Safety
Cashless bail is a relatively new policy concept. The earliest implementers were New Jersey in 2017, and New York started around 2019-2020. Even so, long-term data is starting to emerge. Jurisdictions who implemented cashless bail have been compared to those who did not in quasi-experimental studies. The Brennan Center for Justice (Craigie and Grawert, 2024) used a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) method to compare 22 cities with bail reform to 11 cities that did not. While there are rare instances in which defendants commit serious crimes, this study found that there were no statistically significant differences in crime rates, whether violent crime or property crime.
Furthermore, a study from the Journal of Criminal Justice shows that longer pretrial retention translates into quicker new arrests (Silver et al., 2024). What this means is that unnecessary jail time could increase public risk while harming the individuals and families that this policy is claiming to protect. A study from the University of Chicago puts that recidivism rate as increasing by 6 to 9 percent as a result of cash bail (Gupta et al., 2016).
Racial and Economic Disparities
Cash bail disproportionately harms the poor and minorities. As of mid-2023, the Department of Justice data shows that 70 percent of those in jail were not convicted and were awaiting trial. While not broken down by race, this finding strongly suggests that the racial proportions of the pretrial population closely mirror those of the overall jail population, i.e., 48% White, 35% Black, and 14% Hispanic. This would indicate that cash bail disproportionately affects Black suspects. For those who cannot pay, the jail experience is coercive and horrific enough to pressure them into pleading guilty to a lower charge to avoid jail time, regardless of innocence.
Considering that the median bail is $10,000, those who get harmed by this experience are those who do not have the money to afford bail. This ends up creating a two-tier justice system: one for those with money and one for those who are not well off. Because pretrial detention increases the likelihood of guilty pleas, those held pretrial are four times more likely to be sentenced than those released before trial. It also undermines the legal concept that one is innocent until proven guilty.
Fiscal Costs
Beyond the moral concerns, having increased reliance on cash bail translates into greater fiscal costs. In 2017, the Prison Policy Initiative estimated that cash bail cost $13.6 billion, which would be $18.1 billion in 2025 dollars. In 2023, the American Bar Association estimated those costs to be $14 billion. This is phenomenal considering that the pretrial jail population increased by 433 percent between 1970 and 2011.
Removing cash bail would go a long way in lowering the burden on corrections systems and the mass incarceration that I criticized back in 2015. Then there is the broader economic costs. Research from the Brookings Institution shows (Miller and Wolfers, 2021) that those experience pretrial detention face a reduction of employment probability of about 9.4 percent, which translates into an average income lifetime loss of $29,000. Brookings estimated that eliminating money bail could increase aggregate U.S. income by up to $80.9 billion per year.
Conclusion
As we can see, there is no compelling public safety justification for cash bail. It is fiscally irresponsible and an affront to the limited government that conservatives are supposed to support to have such high rates of unnecessary incarceration. Rather than punishing poverty and disproportionately harming minorities, we should move away from the outdated cash bail system and adopt evidence-based alternatives that assess flight risk and public safety more effectively. Cashless bail is not about being soft on crime. It is about being smart on justice, fair in process, and responsible with taxpayer dollars.
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