When "Flatten the Curve" During COVID Meant Trading One Health Crisis for Another

During the COVID pandemic, "flatten the curve" became quite the mantra. It was the justification used for sweeping lockdowns in order to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The fear was not merely widespread illness, but a collapse of the hospital system. As I explained last month, that nightmare scenario of hospitals overflowing with patients was more faulty modeling and prediction than reality.  

A recent COVID inquiry from the United Kingdom adds on another unpleasant layer. Not only were governments across the world acting in a draconian manner to a threat that by and large did not materialize. They did so in a way that reorganized healthcare to focus on COVID and incentivized everyone else to stay away, especially with the slogan of "Stay home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives" slogan. A few favorites from the inquiry report:

• People were also deterred from accessing healthcare....[because of] the public messaging that was intended to keep them safe ('Stay Home'), the fear of catching COOVID-19 in healthcare settings, a feeling that they did not want to 'overburden' the NHS or because they were worried about attending appointments without a loved one being able to attend with them.
• Some non-COVID-19 patients had their diagnoses and treatments delayed to the point where their conditions became untreatable. 
• There was a decline in attendances at emergency departments and other healthcare settings for non-COVID-19 conditions, even for life-threatening medical emergencies such as heart attacks. 
• This suggests that the public messaging of Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives may have, inadvertently, sent the message that healthcare was closed. 
• Missed and late diagnoses and longer waits for treatment for colorectal cancer...resulted in 1,630 excess deaths from colorectal...cancer. 
• The increased rate of deaths in the community from heart attacks suggested that, during the pandemic, people with heart attacks were less likely to attend hospital and thus did not receive time-dependent heart attack treatments, which led to their death. 

If you read Section 9 of the inquiry, you can read a whole list of how this impacted non-COVID healthcare in the British healthcare system. Upon reading the report, it is tragic that this happened in the first place. It is not as if the cancelled procedures, missed treatments, reduced access, or people trying to avoid care was unpredictable. 

Some might be aghast at these findings, but this lamentably was foreseeable. I noted in May 2020 that the downstream effects of shifting healthcare towards COVID care and away from non-COVID were being severely underweighted. That is why it did not surprise me when it was found that the lockdowns caused excess deaths or evidence in 2022 made it clearer of the costs of delaying preventative care. In 2025, I pointed out how a series of health issues increased in prevalence during the pandemic and had not abated at that time. 

What this UK inquiry does is provide institutional confirmation that people did not seek or receive care when they should have, that diagnoses and treatments were delayed, and that patients in some cases presented too late for effective intervention. It also acknowledges that public messing unintentionally contributed to people avoiding this necessary healthcare. What makes it worse is not only that this occurred, but it persists into 2026. Data from the NHS shows that backlogs are still well above pre-pandemic levels.

There is a tendency to treat this all as unforeseeable, as if no one could see this coming. The sad truth is that it is not. Putting off routine care means that deferred care racks up. That is not wisdom in hindsight; that is basic arithmetic. What makes this outcome so uncomfortable for those who were cheering on the lockdowns is that the governments who were trying to keep their citizens safe latched onto such a narrow definition of safety that they ignored the tradeoffs. 

The result is a familiar and unfortunate pattern: fewer immediate hospital crises followed by years of backlogs, delayed diagnoses, and deterioration of healthcare systems. Once the emergency passed, so did the attention to the disastrous aftermath of the lockdowns, which is another reminder of why something as vital as our health should not be fully placed in the hands of the government, especially during a crisis.

The Trump Administration's Latest Protectionist Trick: Call All Foreign Trade "Unfair"

Modern prosperity relies heavily on international trade. No one single country, even one as resource-rich as the United States, produces everything its citizens want or need. The premise of international trade is that people specialize in what they do well and exchange with others who specialize in something, else, and do so across international borders. It is through international trade that countries prosper. From food and clothing to smartphones and automobiles, international exchange allows producers to reach global markets while consumers gain access to goods that would otherwise be more costly or scarce. 

Yet last week, the Trump's Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) claimed that foreign exports are inherently unfair by saying "U.S. trading partners producing more goods than they can consume domestically...displaces existing U.S. domestic production." By redefining imports as evidence of unfairness, the argument treats the presence of foreign goods as a problem rather than a benefit. This view of economics and trade misunderstands the purpose of trade and risks harming the very Americans it seeks to protect. 

Imports Are Benefits, Not Punishment

A common mistake in the Trump administration's line of thinking is that is treats nations as if they were corporations competing for market share. Under this "logic", every import is portrayed as a concession to foreign producers while exports are celebrated as national triumphs. This narrative might be effective for political optics, but bears little resemblance to how markets actually function. 

This misunderstanding largely stems from the mistaken belief that the economy is a fixed pie in which one country's gain must come at another's expense. In reality, trade expands the pie by allowing individuals and businesses to specialize in what they do best and exchange with others who do the same. Trade allows both sides to become better off because each is exchanging something they value less for something they value more. By expanding opportunities for specialization and exchange, international trade increases overall prosperity rather than simply redistributing a fixed economic pie. 

The Protectionist Redefinition

Calling foreign exports inherently unfair is not an economic argument so much as it is a bastardization of the word "fair." In traditional trade policy debates, unfair trade practices refer to specific policies that distort competition, such as subsidies and state-owned enterprises. As imperfect as it arguably is, it is why a World Trade Organization exists. The Trump administration throws out that entire framework out the window. What is going on is that the administration is asserting that the act of selling goods to Americans is suspect if the seller happens to be located outside of the United States.

It is absurd because this approach eliminates the need for evidence or analysis. The argument uses circular logic in which foreign exports are declared unfair simply for being foreign exports. Such "reasoning" turns market competition into exploitation, success into cheating, and consumer choice into economic wrongdoing. Any successful foreign business can be labeled as "unfair", thereby making the fairness argument meaningless. It is an approach that replaces serious economic analysis with farcical economic nationalism. 

What is more is that this logic mirrors the rhetoric behind "Buy American" or "buy local". If purchasing foreign goods is harmful, then presumably Americans should only buy domestically produced goods. But why stop there? With that same logic, it should be wrong to buy goods and services from another state rather than one's own community or neighborhood. Taken seriously, this reductio ad absurdum "logic" collapses when applied consistently. Economic progress has always depended on the widening the scope of trading partners. Restricting trade based on geography does not create wealth. It merely limits the ways in which prosperity can flourish.

Making America Pay Again

This protectionist mindset is framed as a way to shield American workers and industries from "big, bad foreign competitors." In reality, protectionist measures like tariffs impose broad costs onto the U.S. economy. Tariffs reduce competition and restrict supply, which results in higher consumer prices, fewer jobs, and lower economic growth. What is framed politically as sticking it to foreign countries ends up being a tax on the everyday American. 

Those higher costs ripple throughout the broader economy. Consumers pay more for finished goods, while American businesses pay more for imported components and raw materials that they rely on to produce their own products. In many industries, these inputs are essential to maintaining competitiveness. By raising their costs, protectionist policies ultimately make American firms less productive and less able to compete both at home and abroad. 

Those Who Trade Together Stay Together

Trade does not merely affect prices; it shapes the broader strength of the nation. Declaring foreign exports unfair and erecting trade barriers risks weakening the very economic foundations that sustain U.S. competitiveness and strategic influence. Driving up costs for American firms leaves them less capable to compete in the global economy. A strong economy is a prerequisite for a strong national infrastructure and robust national security, and protectionism undermines both. 

These costs extend beyond domestic production. They also damage alliances and global relations. Tariffs and other protectionist policies often push allies into the arms of rivals, thereby diminishing national security. At the same time, these measures slow domestic production and reduce the efficiency of U.S. firms, which undermines the critical base for U.S. infrastructure and security. In other words, this approach risks making the country less secure, less innovative, and less influential on the global stage. 

Old Trade Fallacies Make a Comeback

Declaring foreign exports "unfair" substitutes political rhetoric for analysis. By assuming that imports are evidence of wrongdoing, the argument ignores the principles that make international trade beneficial: specialization, voluntary exchange, and consumer choice. This is just the latest manifestation of the same idiotic reasoning behind "Buy American' or "buy local" campaigns: restricting trade based on geography or origin does not create prosperity; it limits it. The zero-sum logic of protectionism is fundamentally at odds with how markets work. 

The consequences of these policies extend much beyond economic theory. These protectionist measures raise costs for consumers, increase inefficiencies for businesses, and undermine the strategic and economic advantages of maintaining robust global trade relationships. Far from protecting Americans or making America great again, these measures punish them, reduce prosperity, and weaken the U.S.' ability to adapt in a competitive world. If the U.S. government treats all foreign goods as guilty by default, the ones who will lose bigly will be the American people. 

COVID Lockdowns & School Closures and How the Children Did Not Developmentally Bounce Back

Sometimes it feels like the COVID-19 pandemic was yesterday, but the truth is that yesterday was the six-year anniversary that the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. We were told shortly after that the effects of the lockdowns would be short-lived and we could weather it because nothing was worse than COVID-19. We all know how that safetyism turned out!

In the years following the pandemic, researchers have been trying to discern what the tradeoffs of the lockdowns were. The body of research continues to grow and show how the lockdowns were far from being harmless, especially for children. 

Last December, I wrote about research that indicates that lockdowns may have contributed to language and social-cognitive delays in young children. A new study from the University of East Anglia (Johns et al., 2026) shows how the lockdown's effect on children is much worse than previously thought.

The new study did not simply compare outcomes before and after the pandemic. This study tracked the same children over time, allowing researchers to measure how quickly their cognitive skills developed and how entering school during the lockdowns affected that growth. Not only does the study show that the lockdowns caused lower growth in executive-function skills and that the impacts were more greatly felt by children in low-income households. That gap persists years after the lockdown and those students still struggle to catch up.

This study cannot tell us whether the delays from the COVID lockdowns are permanent because only time can tell. Even so, this study shows something fundamental. Lockdowns slowed the rate at which key cognitive skills developed during one of the most formative periods of childhood. 

Executive function, which includes such skills as self-control, attention regulation, and flexible thinking, normally grows rapidly when children first enter school and begin interacting regularly with peers. When those experiences are interrupted, development slowed. Even if some of that is made up, it is not as simple as doubling down efforts to make up for lost time. It simply does not work that way. And this is not a trivial development because it is executive function that plays a major role in academic and social success down the road. 

That is what makes this whole debate even more striking. Much like I brought up last December, lockdowns that disrupted children's lives so profoundly and had such adverse effects were often justified by people who spoke passionately about income inequality in the pre-COVID era. Yet policies that shut down schools and isolate children from an environment where they normally develop those skills was asking for trouble. 

Studies like this show that the costs of lockdowns were not temporary or merely inconvenient. The lockdowns are such a calamity where they still have caused considerable harm years later. Draconian COVID measures were not simply a matter of children missing a few classes. These children have been deprived of an important part of growing up and what it means to be a kid. 

The Billionaire Blunder: Why Bernie Sanders' Wealth Tax Wouldn't Deliver

Every few years, the idea of a wealth tax resurfaces in American politics. The concept is simple enough. Instead of taxing income, the government would impose an annual tax on accumulated wealth, whether that is stocks, bonds, real estate, or other assets. Last week, Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Ro Khanna (D-CA) introduced legislation for a 5 percent wealth tax on the billionaires. Sanders claims that this tax could generate $4.4 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, revenue that Sanders would like to use to pay for Medicaid expansion, affordable housing, and a $3,000 in direct payments to households.

The theme of a wealth tax is hardly a new topic here at Libertarian Jew. I first covered it in 2014 when economist Thomas Pikkety proposed a global wealth tax. I did so again in 2019 when Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) proposed a wealth tax. While the details of the proposal can change from one to the next, the evidence consistently shows the problematic nature of the wealth tax. I will use my 2019 argument as the basis for my current argument and update the data as needed. 

Other countries have abandoned the wealth tax. In the 1990s, the number of OECD countries with a wealth tax peaked at 12 countries. Now, the figure is at four countries: Norway, Spain, Switzerland, and Colombia. Much of the remainder of this piece will get into the "why" of this decline.  

The wealth tax is difficult to valuate. As the OECD points out (p. 69), a difficulty with the wealth tax is figuring out assets are worth. Unlike income, which is recorded through transactions, wealth often consists of assets that lack clear market prices, such as family businesses, land, or valuable collections. Determining their value requires subjective appraisals that can be expensive, inconsistent, and easily contested. 

High elasticity. Another question is how sensitive wealthy people are to wealth taxes. This responsiveness to a tax increase or decrease, known in economics as elasticity, gets at how much an individual can tolerate a tax change. In the Spanish case study, tax filers' taxable wealth decreased by 42-51 percent. Similarly in Colombia, a 1 percent decrease in the wealth tax led to an immediate 2 percent increase in wealth for those near the threshold. In Scandinavian countries, a one-percentage point increase in the wealth tax led to a decrease of stocks by wealthy taxpayers by 2 percent. 

It is no mystery: people do not want to pay the wealth tax. People can use the legal system with tax avoidance, whether through moving taxes in tax-exempt accounts, underreporting wealth, inflating liabilities, or claiming deductions strategically. These are the types of responses with lower tax rates. Imagine what it would be like with a 5 percent wealth tax rate!

It is also worth noting that Sanders' rhetoric about "millionaires and billionaires" softened in recent years. He conveniently dropped the "millionaires" around the time he himself became a millionaire. I guess it is easy to champion taxing the rich as long as you get to redraw the definition of "rich" to leave yourself out. 

Rosy estimates and evasion rates. Economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman estimated that Sanders' wealth tax would generate $4.4 trillion in the next decade. They were the same economists that calculated the estimate for Elizabeth Warren in 2019. Warren's tax was at 2 percent for wealth between $50 million and $1 billion, and 3 percent for anything above. For Warren's version, the economists assumed a 15 percent tax evasion rate. What I find peculiar is that these economists assume a lower evasion rate with Sanders' version, even though it is a higher tax rate. 

Forget that one of the co-authors, Zucman, co-authored a paper showing that those in the 0.01 percent have a tax evasion rate upwards of 30 percent. Other tax experts are not buying it. As the Tax Foundation points out, if you assume an evasion rate closer to that paper that Zucman co-authored, Sanders' estimate would decline to $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Senior Fellow Kyle Pomerleau at the American Enterprise Institute is even less optimistic. Once factoring in behavioral responses, Pomerleau estimated that it would be $2.3 trillion over the next decade. 

Wealth tax does not generate that much revenue. The issue of unbridled optimism is not confined to these two economists that Sanders hired. Historical experience shows how little revenue wealth taxes truly generate. With Sanders' estimates, his annual average of $440 billion would be the equivalent of 1.4 percent of GDP, given that the most recent GDP figures had it at $31.10 trillion. 

Looking at historical data, it has been quite low. That was a conclusion of that lovely OECD report on wealth taxes (p. 18). The Tax Foundation was kind enough to gather the historical wealth tax data on the few countries that still have a wealth tax to show that with very few exceptions, the wealth tax revenue does not exceed 1 percent of GDP (see below). 

  

Conclusion. All of this adds up to a simple conclusion: wealth taxes are inherently tricky, easy to evade, and historically generate far less revenue than proponents claim. Sanders' proposal may sound ambitious, but experience teaches us that wealth taxes provoke capital flight, creative accounting, and behavioral shifts that shrink the tax base. Let's be real: taxing billionaires at 5 percent is less a sincere fiscal plan and more a social media stunt dressed up as economics.

X Marks the Spot? Why Driver’s Licenses Shouldn’t Be Gender Identity Statements

Last week in Kansas, Senate Bill 244 went into effect. One notable aspect is that this bill mandates that people enter bathrooms in government buildings according to their biological sex. What is interesting is that an individual violating this law can face a civil penalty of $1,000. But that is not the provision I want to cover today. This bill also requires that driver's licenses list biological sex instead of gender identity. 

For transgender individuals, this is not an abstract policy change. It alters a document that they use for multiple activities, which includes driving a vehicle, renting a car, interacting with police, applying for a loan, boarding an airplane, picking up a package, registering at a hospital, checking into a hotel, and signing a lease. Critics of this bill argue that it imposes stigma, creates daily friction, and opens transgender people to harassment and discrimination. 

One criticism of this bill that I will agree with is that there was next to no grace period given for transgender people to acquire a new driver's license. It is true that a retroactive invalidation with no grace period is harmful and an example of poorly drafted legislation. Bureaucracies should do their utmost to not create avoidable chaos, although that might be too big of an ask. 

Yet beneath the procedural misstep is a more fundamental issue, mainly that a driver's license is a form of legal identification, not a canvas for personal self-identification.  As I explained last year, gender identity lacks clear operational boundaries and is not something that the government can consistently or meaningfully verify due to its incoherent and subjective nature. Because gender identity cannot be defined or verified with consistency, it is an unsuitable basis for a legal document and has no practical utility. 

By contrast, biological sex is a stable and verifiable category that reduces ambiguity and keeps administrative processes consistent and secure. While not as crucial as a photo, name, or date of birth, a biological sex indicator on a driver's license still serves functions that gender identity cannot engender (pun intended). 

• Interactions with law enforcement: Driver's licenses are used to confirm identity during traffic stops, match individuals to warrants, and identify suspects from descriptions. Physical descriptions often include biological sex, which correlates with bone structure, facial structure, height and weight distribution patterns, and voice patterns. While an officer may rely most heavily on the photo, name, and date of birth, biological sex remains a verifiable descriptive element that gender identity does not consistently provide. 

• Medical and emergency contexts: Driver's licenses are not designed as medical records, yet biological sex can occasionally aid identification in emergencies and provide context for drug metabolism differences, sex-specific conditions (e.g., ovarian cancer, testicular emergencies), baseline cardiovascular differences, and possible pregnancy. Biological sex has clinical relevance, whereas gender identity does not serve this function.

• Data integrity. Since it acts as an official source for administrative statistics, driver's license data has a downstream effect of feeding into accident statistics, crime reporting, public health research, and transportation safety analysis. Biological sex is empirically measurable and allows accurate sex-based comparisons. Gender identity does not provide such consistency for data analysis.

A driver's license is an administrative document for legal identification. Because the driver's license serves as a foundational identification document in modern civic life, the categories of information it contains should be objective, stable, verifiable, and resistant to self-attestation alone. Since gender identity is a subjective understanding of the self, it has no consistent administrative application. 

In addition to being an objective category, the characteristic should be necessary for identification or administrative purposes. Otherwise, why not add political affiliation, sexual orientation, religion, or Myers-Briggs type on a driver's license? Because legal identification is not meant to capture the fullness of who we are as individuals. 

It serves the narrower purpose of anchoring a person to a stable, administrable record within a broader legal system. The more the state drifts from objective categories toward interior self-conception, the less it identifies and the more it validates someone's self-perception. A driver's license is for identifying people, not a self-affirmation tool. 

When identification becomes affirmation, it stops identifying anything at all. Validating someone's perception of self is not something the government should be in the business of doing because a category that means whatever anyone says it means, especially when it is not grounded in reality, ultimately means nothing. 

Drowning Out Evil: What the Purim Practice of Noisemaking Teaches About Moral Clarity

The news cycle as of late has been filled with reports of Operation Epic Fury, which is the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign targeting the remnants of Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure, as well as various members of Iranian leadership. Regardless of one's political perspective and whether this attack should have been launched, the operation is unmistakably loud. Not only is it loud in the literal sense with explosions and air power, but also in the figurative sense in terms of the Trump administration's foreign policy and how it views its adversaries. 

The idea that evil should not be ignored and should be actively opposed is not a new concept in Jewish history. In synagogues around the world, Jews will gather tonight in a ritualized form of confronting evil: the reading of the Book of Esther, also know as the Megillah. The biblical narrative describes how a Jewish woman, Esther, rises to the queenship of the Persian Empire and thwarts a genocidal plot against the Jewish people. The antagonist of the story is Haman, a royal official who persuades King Ahasuerus to authorize the extermination of the Jews. Through a dramatic reversal, Haman's plan was thwarted and the Jewish people were saved. 

This is where the noise enters the scene. Every time the name of Haman is mentioned in the Megillah reading, synagogues erupt in boos, stomps, hisses, and the rattling clamor of groggers. Although the first documented instance of this practice is in the 13th century, it is derived from the Torah. In the book of Deuteronomy (25:17-19), the Jews are commanded to blot out the memory of Amalek. Haman was the son of Hammedathah the Agagite (Esther 3:1). Agag was the king of the Amalekites (I Samuel 15:8-9), which is why Jewish tradition (Talmud, Megillah 13a).

In an age where moral categories are inverted, Purim is especially relevant. Hamas carried out despicable acts of kidnapping, rape, torture, and murder against Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023. If an attack that was equivalent to multiple 9/11 attacks happened to any other country, the international community would have sympathized with the attacked. Instead, much of the world sympathized with an anti-Semitic, homophobic, authoritarian terrorist organization. Entire populations now reframe those who call for the extinction of the Jewish state as "oppressed" and "freedom fighters.”

Then there is the new low society has reached in that more and more are of the opinion that disagreeable ideas are the same as actual violence. We see this not simply in rhetorical terms, but in real-world consequences It was that warped logic that got Charlie Kirk murdered and can continue to justify violence as a response to political disagreement.

These are but two examples to contrast the Megillah. Haman is not perceived as "oppressed," "misunderstood," or "dealing with systemic inequity." Haman sought genocide: full stop. There was no "this situation is complicated" or "the relation between Jews and Persians were complex and nuanced at the time." The Purim story insists otherwise. Power can corrupt, tyranny is real, and genocide is evil. The Megillah illustrates the moral categories unambiguously. 

At the same time, the Megillah models a form of pluralism that does not compromise moral clarity. The Jews lived among foreigners under foreign rule and navigated a world of different beliefs and customs. That diversity does not mean that we ignore when clear wrongdoing is taking place. Just like Jews in the Megillah existed in a different world were also able to recognize Haman's evil. We too must insist on certain basic truths in a pluralistic world. Acts like genocide, torture, and kidnapping are unacceptable. Purim teaches that we can live amidst difference without equivocating about what is categorically wrong or drifting into the idea that evil is "just another perspective." 

The uproar at Haman's name is not just about a tradition. It is about not having evil become normalized. It is about making sure we can distinguish between right and wrong, even in a pluralistic, democratic society. Sometimes it takes a loud, jarring noise to make sure we do not succumb to moral atrophy and indifference.