President Trump has finally done something that past presidents were incapable of doing: recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Under the United Nations' Partition Plan for Palestine in 1947, Jerusalem was declared corpus separatum, and placed under this special status due to the symbolism across multiple religions. The Green Line of 1949 split Jerusalem into two parts: West Jerusalem for Israel and East Jerusalem for Jordan. In 1967 during the Six-Day War, Israel annexed Eastern Jerusalem, thereby unifying Jerusalem. It was in 1980 that Israel codified in its law that Jerusalem was the unified capital of Israel. Israel presently has embassies in Tel Aviv, but not Jerusalem because the issue is that contentious. If Trump actually moves the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, this would be the beginning of a paradigm shift within the international community, especially since many countries still view Jerusalem as disputed territory. The Palestinian Authority would consider a move as a "kiss of death" to the peace process....although, if we were going to be honest, the peace process has not gone anywhere for at least a few years. Did Trump make the right move or did he start something where we're going to look back and shake our heads in bewilderment?
Let's be real here: Jerusalem functions as the capital of Israel. Oxford defines a capital as "the city or town that functions as the seat of government and administrative centre of a country or region." And you know what? Jerusalem fits that definition. The Knesset, Israel's legislature, resides in Jerusalem. The Cabinet of Israel and the Supreme Court are also located in Jerusalem. Jerusalem is the only city in the world that functions like a capital and is not internationally recognized as such.
Yes, it is a remarkable double standard and unfair that Jerusalem cannot be recognized as the capital of Israel. At the same time, is moving the embassy to Jerusalem the right move from a political standpoint? The largest concern about moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem is that of violent backlash in the Arab world. The U.S. has not moved the embassy to Jerusalem because it has tried to maintain a status of "honest broker of peace." Such a move would come off as pre-judging the situation, which is all the more important since the status of Jerusalem has been viewed as something to be negotiated during the peace process.
Jonathan Schanzer, the Vice President of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (and someone who I happen to know), has said that such a sudden switch would shake up the strategic partnership between Jordan and Israel, as well as cause a break in the quiet diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Especially if these countries experience considerable rioting and protesting in their country as a result, it could diminish the "cold peace" Israel has developed with Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Even with the Arab world and Europe generally being hostile towards Israel, Israel has improved its diplomatic status with multiple nations. Saudi Arabia's tacit alliance with Israel is especially important with the rise of Iran, which is why Israel can ill afford to lose that.
It is certainly a plausible outcome that Israel could lose diplomatic clout with key regional players. However, predictions of how the Arab world would react range from diplomatic complaints to a third Intifada to an escalation of war. Plus, you already have a region where there are civil wars in three countries: Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, not to mention Hezbollah, Hamas, or other terrorist operatives, so it's not like the Middle East isn't violent already. This illustrates how tricky analyzing foreign policy can be. Even using past behavior as an indicator, foreign policy remains more elusive and speculative than other forms of public policy analysis. I am not going to pretend that I can pinpoint the magnitude of the Arab World's reaction because I can't. I hope that the problem stays confined to a few small protests and some diplomatic squabbling.
What I can say is that we no longer have to deny a basic geopolitical reality, and that delegitimizing Israel became more difficult now that Israel has a more symbolic backing of the most powerful democracy on the planet. Moving forward with such recognition could help Palestine recognize Israel's right to exist, which would, quite frankly, help with the peace process in the long-run. Such a move would not be without challenge (read Washington Institute policy brief here). If you want to minimize outrage, put the embassy in the western part of Jerusalem. Not only has West Jerusalem been part of Israel since 1949, but odds are that it would be part of Israel in final negotiating of any possible two-state solution. If it is made clear that such a move would not prejudice the final status of Jerusalem, if it does not jeopardize Palestine's claim to statehood, and if Muslim leaders' concerns are expressed and taken into consideration, I think the damage would be mitigated. Even with the concerns about diplomatic backlash that I still harbor, I nevertheless see this move as a welcomed step in the right direction.
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