Democratic Party Policy Ideas Not Popular Enough to Win 2020 Presidential Election

I have to love the optimism of my self-identifying progressive friends when it comes to them thinking that "progressivism" will win the hearts of Americans and win the 2020 presidential election. While I find that sentiment to be cute, I really do have to wonder if my country is that liberal. On such issues as same-sex marriage and marijuana, I would agree that Americans have become more open and accepting on these topics. When it comes to immigration, Trump has become belligerent and ridiculous enough where Americans have become overall more supportive of immigration (Gallup). In spite of some issues being in the Democrats' favor, what I am going to argue that when it comes to the major issues, the United States is by and large not ready for a Left-leaning agenda.

1. Medicare for All. When asked about whether they support Americans, 51 percent support it, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll. Support drops when asked about particulars. If Medicare for All is to result in delayed treatment (which other single-payer systems have experienced), then support for Medicare for All drops to 26 percent (KFF, 7/2019). Support hovers around 37 percent if Medicare for All raises taxes and eliminates private health insurance (ibid.).  
2. $15 Minimum Wage. Generally speaking, 63 percent of Americans support a $15 minimum wage. What changed was when they were told about the economic impact as found in the recent Congressional Budget Report (see my analysis here). When they were told that 27 million people would get a pay bump while 1.3 million would lose their jobs, support dropped from 63 percent to 37 percent (Business Insider).
3. Abortion. On the one hand, 60 percent think that Roe v. Wade should not be overturned. On the other hand, support for abortion drops to 28 percent for abortions performed in the second trimester, and down to 13 percent for abortions performed in the third trimester (Gallup).
4. Reparations. Especially during the Democratic primary debates, there has been a shift on discussing reparations for the descendants of enslaved men and women. While the idea is gaining traction amongst Democrats, two-thirds of Americans are opposed to giving cash reparations to descendants of slaves (Gallup, 7/2019). Rasmussen had a similar finding in April. 
5. Universal Basic Income. Andrew Yang has been a particular proponent of a universal basic income, although other candidates are starting to catch on. It might not sit so well with voters: 52 percent are opposed to the idea (Gallup, 2/2018).
6. Political Correctness.  While this could have some economic effects, the concerns here are primarily cultural in nature. 52 percent of Americans, along with a majority of independents upon whom the Democrats would have to depend on to win in 2020, are against political correctness (NPR, 12/2018). 
7. Climate Change. Climate change has become an increasingly large concern amongst Americans. A Washington Post poll found that 64 percent think fighting climate change is very or extremely important. In terms of solutions, 25 percent support a 25¢ increase in a gas tax and 27 percent support a $10 increase in electric bills (Washington Post). Another poll confirms this notion: 68 percent of Americans would not want to pay an extra $10 a month in utility bill payments to fight climate change (AP/NORC, 1/2018). In short, people feel that climate change is important, but they don't want to have to foot the bill in any significant way. 
8. Providing Health Care to Illegal Immigrants/Undocumented Workers. All 10 candidates at the second night of the first round debates back in June said they would provide health care to illegal immigrants. The issue is that 58 percent of Americans do not think that should happen (CNN, 6/2019).
9. Student Loan Forgiveness and Free College Tuition. Elizabeth Warren has a plan for student loan forgiveness and free college tuition. Only 38 percent are in favor of student loan forgiveness (Rasmussen 7/2019), whereas 52 percent oppose making college free (Quinnipiac, 4/2019). 
10. Taxation Levels. Democratic presidential candidates have proposed multiple initiatives, whether it is the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, or free college tuition. One of the major blind spots of proposing these initiatives, however, is how they are going to pay for it all. Candidates such as Sanders love to cite Scandinavia as an example, but he ignores how they pay for their large government programs. Over there, it is not only the one percent that pay forty-plus percent in taxes. It is everyone, including the poor. 45 percent of Americans think that they pay too much in taxes, whereas an additional 48 percent think they pay the right amount (Gallup). Getting Americans to pay more in taxes will be a hard sell, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if the Republicans played that fear to their advantage in 2020.  
11. General Trust in Federal Government. Trust in the federal government is key because so many of the Democrats' ideas involve the federal government as the solution. What is interesting is that trust of the federal government is at a twenty-year low. 41 percent of Americans think that the federal government can solve problems, whereas 35 percent believe that the government can solve domestic issues (Gallup, 1/2019). 23 percent think that the government is the most pressing issue to resolve (Gallup, 7/2019).
12. Democratic Party Preferences. Another factor is the direction in which Democrats would like to see their party shift. From the looks of the presidential primary debates, you would think that Democrats unambiguously want their party to become more Left-leaning. However, polling suggests that only 41 percent of Democrats want the party to lean further Left. 54 percent would rather have a more moderate party (Gallup, 12/2018). This puts the Democratic party at odds with its own base. If a majority of Democrats don't want their party leaning further to the Left, if would stand to reason that the majority of the country doesn't want policy to lean more to the Left.  

When asking general questions about certain policy issues, one might think that the citizens of the United States lean more to the Left. It's when surveys ask about the details about the implementation about policy when we start to realize that the United States does not lean anywhere far to the Left, certainly not enough for Democrats to win the 2020 presidential elections based on issues. Can sentiments change? Yes, although historically, they do not typically shift that quickly. Do people vote solely on issues? No. For one, this country has become more polarized and is more likely to vote based on party lines than they did (e.g., Pew Research). To that point, there are a myriad issues not having to do with policy ideas that influence election outcomes, including the state of the economy, media, approval of the current president, and potential scandal. I'm not here to say who will win the 2020 election, but I can say that for the most part, having a "progressive"/Leftist agenda is not a sound campaign strategy.