Travel Bans Are Nothing More Than Harmful Public Health Theater

In the "wonderful" world of COVID fear-mongering, the World Health Organization [WHO] classified the variant B.1.1.529 of the coronavirus, also known as the omicron variant, as a "variant of concern." By the WHO's definition, a "variant of concern" is a variant that is more transmissible, more virulent, and/or more skilled at evading public health measures. The omicron variant has its origins in South Africa, although it has already been discovered in 23 other countries [as of 12/1]. In response, such countries as the United Kingdom, United States, Israel, and Japan decided to impose travel bans on South Africa and surrounding countries (e.g., Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho). The premise behind these travel bans are to lower the spread of COVID, or at a minimum, buy some time for the upcoming disease or variant. While this might seem like a well-thought-out idea, the truth of the matter is that they are not an effective public health measure. 

Travel Bans Are Ineffective at Preventing COVID Spread

The pre-pandemic understanding of travel bans has been that they have minimal impact, as this systematic review from the WHO on influenza-based travel bans illustrates (Mateus et al., 2014). As Johns Hopkins epidemiologist Chris Beyrer points out, travel bans during the coronavirus pandemic have been ineffective at keeping the alpha and delta variants out of multiple countries. For argument's sake, let us look at some of the research that suggests at least some effectiveness. An article from Lancet (Russell et al., 2020) found that travel bans are most effective when "there are zero or few cases in the destination country." This Lancet finding implies that a travel ban is most likely to be successful at the beginning of the pandemic. Certainly at this stage in the pandemic, travel bans lose efficacy. 

An article from Science concluded that the travel ban in Wuhan only delayed epidemic progression by a whopping three to five days (Chinazzi et al., 2020). The caveat for this negligible effect is that the travel ban would to be accompanied by a comprehensive public health response (e.g., hand-washing, social distancing, house quarantine). 

It is one thing for travel bans to theoretically work. Looking at the research, here is how it would need to work in practice. Travel bans would need to be implemented early enough before the infection rates are too high. Travel bans work as part of a more comprehensive public health response. Even if a country is coordinated enough to pull that off, travel bans do not stop the spread of a disease. As a research brief from the Cato Institute (Bier, 2020) and an article from the Journal of Emergency Management found (Errett et al., 2020), travel bans merely delay the spread of a disease. 

Travel bans have the potential to be somewhere between insignificant and mildly effective at the beginning at the pandemic, but become negligible as the pandemic progresses. The reason for that is because we reach a certain point in the pandemic, a point we certainly have reached in December 2021, where international travelers are no longer a significant contributor to overall infection incidence. It is no wonder that the WHO advised against imposing blanket travel bans from the onset of the pandemic and continues to make that recommendation.

Impeding Future Pandemic Readiness

South Africa was able to identify, reporting, and sequence the omicron genome in a relatively quick fashion. How does South Africa get "rewarded?" By having travel bans imposed on South Africa. The problem with implementing a travel ban in response is very short-sighted. Why? As National Public Radio [NPR] brings up, if another country discovers a future variant within their borders, they very likely would be disincentivized to report the variant. After all, it was China's cover-up of the initial strain that got us into this mess in the first place.

Travel bans are all the more impactful when banning countries that do not have the infrastructure or resources to implement widespread vaccination. While it might seem noble to protect one's own citizens, the truth of the matter is that the pandemic is a global one. If this issue of getting widespread vaccination to developing countries not get rectified, we will continue to see new variants crop up. Combine the discouragement of reporting with the fact that a travel ban makes it difficult to transport healthcare workers and other healthcare resources, and what you have is a recipe to prolong the pandemic. 

Harm Caused by Travel Bans

We cannot look at the benefits of the travel bans in isolation, as if COVID transmission were the only issue at play. We also need to make sure that the travel bans do not cause more harm than they are trying to prevent. Limiting travel stymies economic growth because you are cutting off multiple forms of economic activity. That is basic economics. The question is by how much. That question is tricky to answer, especially since it is difficult to disentangle the effects of the travel restrictions from the pandemic itself or from other containment efforts (e.g., lockdowns). Nevertheless, there have been some attempts to quantify the economic costs:

• In February 2020, the Cato Institute made a back-of-the-envelope estimation that a travel-and-immigration ban would cost the U.S. economy $323 billion in the first year. 
• The Canadian Government estimated that travel bans would reduce GDP from 1.2 to 1.7 percent for 2020 (Liu, 2020). 
• The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD] estimated that travel bans impose an average service cost of 12 percent of export values across sectors (Benz et al., 2020).
• In July 2021, the U.S. Travel Association calculated that travel restrictions on the U.K., Europe, and Canada were costing the United States $1.5 billion per week. 
• According to the World Travel and Tourism Council [WTTC], international tourism spending dropped 69.4 percent due to ongoing travel restrictions (p. 4). Additionally, the WTTC calculated that the United States was losing $198 million a day due to travel restrictions. Assuming that figure holds for an entire calendar year, that would amount to $72.5 billion a year. 
• The World Bank detailed how earlier travel restrictions harmed those in sub-Saharan Africa, including livelihoods, food security, and lower access to education (Paci, 2021).

There is more than the economic cost. There is also the human toll taken on people who are unable to spend time with loved ones, whether it is long-distanced partners being separated, grandparents unable to see their grandchildren, being prevented from such life-cycle events as weddings and funerals, or being unable to visit a loved one that is sick in the hospital.  

Conclusion: Travel bans do not stop the spread of a disease. At best, it briefly stalls the spread of the disease. Plus, whatever effectiveness they do have takes place at the beginning of the pandemic. At this point of the pandemic, a travel ban in the hopes of stopping the omicron variant is foolhardy. It is already in multiple countries and has made its way to the United States. Its ineffectiveness makes it all the more difficult to justify the economic and emotional costs of travel bans.

Omicron is not the first variant and in all likelihood, it will not be the last variant. We are not going to reach a moment of zero-COVID. COVID is here to stay. The sooner we accept that, the sooner we can move forward and reach the point where the pandemic finally becomes endemic. Instead of enacting harmful and ineffective travel bans, what we should focus on what works, (e.g., testing, domestic travel screening, vaccines). We should do our utmost to implement localized public health protocols to minimize spread of COVID while not interrupting international trade and commerce. Sadly, travel bans do neither.