Migrant Crime Wave Is a Myth: New Study Shows Immigrants Are Much Less Likely to Commit Crimes

During Trump's presidential campaign, he pushed the idea that there is a "migrant crime wave." Essentially, his argument that was due to the influx of immigrants, there is a corresponding and substantial increase in crime that is caused by these immigrants, particularly undocumented migrants. It is a justification that Trump has used for his mass deportation plan. Earlier this week, the White House lawn was lined with mugshots of arrested immigrants accused of crimes, thereby reinforcing the notion of a "migrant crime wave." Even about half of U.S. citizens believe that immigrants are causing an increase in crime (Gallup). The problem is that as much as Trump likes to scapegoat immigrants, the "migrant crime wave" is a myth.

Last week, the Cato Institute released an analysis entitled Illegal Incarceration Rates, 2010-2023. With all the stories on the news about "illegal immigrants committing crimes," you would think that they are a menace to society and are committing crimes like mad. But guess what this analysis found? "Illegal immigrants are half as likely to be incarcerated as native-born Americans. Legal immigrants are 74 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives. If native-born Americans were incarcerated at the same rate as illegal immigrants, about 806,000 fewer natives would be incarcerated."     

If the "migrant crime wave" theory played out, there would have been a surge in crime in 2023 at the border states that corresponded with the record 2.3 million immigrants that were encountered at the southern border. Yet Texas' violent crime rate decreased 15 percent in 2023, and Arizona's violent crime rate dropped by 8.8 percent. More interestingly, Texas is the only state that tracks crime data by immigration status. Guess what Texas' data has to say? The homicide conviction rates for legal and illegal immigrants are 36 percent and 62 percent lower, respectively, than for native-born Americans living in Texas. 

Sadly, this moral panic about immigrants committing a disproportionate amount of crime is nothing new. Even a 1931 report from the Hoover Administration pointed out that blaming immigrants for crime is about as old as the U.S. colonies themselves. Yet the results remain the same. A working paper at the National Bureau of Economic Research looked at immigrant crime rates from 1860 to 2019 (Abramitzky et al., 2023). Over the past 150 years, immigrants have consistently had lower crime rates than native-born citizens. The authors estimated that immigrants are 60 percent less likely to commit crimes than native-born citizens. 

When you think through the reasoning, it makes sense that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born citizens. The fact that immigrants make the conscious decision to leave their home country behind for a better future shows resilience, ambition, and a focus on the future. There is a high deterrence factor, especially for illegal immigrants/undocumented workers, because the punishment is higher. Since immigrants have higher employment rates than native workers, better economic opportunity and a steady job mean less likelihood of committing crime. Also, immigrants are more likely to have stronger bonds with family and civil society, thereby reducing likelihood of crime.  

What does this all mean for the "immigration and crime" conversation? The data do not substantiate the idea that more immigrants equal more crime. Quite the opposite! The U.S. government previously tried implementing a program to deport illegal immigrant criminals called Secure Communities. It did not do anything to lower crime rates. Peddling this myth harms the Latino community in particular while fracturing the relation between police officers and the overall community. If anything, this fracture can foment mistrust that makes people less likely to report crimes or cooperate with the police. This can hamper the police's ability to conduct investigations, thereby increasing the crime rate. None of this surprises me since immigration creates black markets, and black markets make matters worse. 

As this report from the American Immigration Council illustrates, greater immigration keeps crime down because the social ties and robust community programs that are common with immigrants help maintain lower crime rates. Immigrants are a net positive for the economy (even "low-skilled" immigrants) and significantly contribute to tax revenue. The social and economic positives of immigration help keep crime rates down. If the anti-immigrant side is legitimately concerned with crime rates, what we should do is allow for more legal immigration while channeling more resources from immigration enforcement to ordinary police. Otherwise, the anti-immigrant, nativist crowd is all talk and no action that will actually help with reducing crime rates.