Consumption and usage patterns. For adults, past 30-day usage increased from 13.4 percent in 2014 to 15.5 percent in 2017 (CDPS, p. 65). This is what one would expect because "when you legalize something, you get more of it." I was curious to see the impact that marijuana legalization had on teenagers. The CDPS used two main surveys. The first was the Health Kids Colorado Survey (HKCS). According to the HKCS, which is conducted biannually, shows that it slightly increased, followed by a decrease in 2017 (CPDS, p. 102).
The results of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from SAMHSA show an even greater decline in youth marijuana usage since legalization (CPDS, p. 120).
Marijuana-Related Crime. In Denver, marijuana-related crimes dropped from its peak of 276 crimes in 2014 to 183 crimes in 2017. Contrast that with overall crime in Denver increasing from 61,276 crimes in 2014 to 66,000 crimes in 2017 (CDPS, p. 32).
School Discipline and Achievement. Marijuana legalization does not seem to have affected this category. Marijuana offenses steadily dropped, from 1,655 offenses in 2014 to 1,144 offenses in 2017 (CDPS, p. 125). As for the number of drug suspensions, the number went up in 2009-10, and stayed steady since (CDPS, p. 129). Looking at drug suspensions in terms of rates, the figure is slightly lower than it was before legalization (CDPS, p. 130). What is even better is that the graduation rate has increased and the dropout rate slightly decreased since legalization (CDPS, p. 135).
Traffic Fatalities and Crashes. One of the major concerns aside from "think of the children" was that people would get high, drive their car, and increase the rate at which traffic fatalities took place. On the one hand, traffic fatalities involving drivers testing positive for cannabinoids increased since 2013 (see below; CDPS, p. 51). On the other hand, it comes with a very important caveat: THC, which is the key ingredient in marijuana, can stay in the bloodstream for weeks. Until there are better methods for testing for marijuana intoxication, it is difficult to say how much of this increase is caused by marijuana. This is further suggested by the fact that the number of drivers in fatal crashes that tested above the legal limit of 5ng/ml of THC decreased from 2016 to 2017 (CDPS, p. 49), it provides more plausibility that marijuana is not the sole factor in the increase of traffic fatalities. Conversely, an October 2018 report from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) found that marijuana legalization led to a 7.4 percent increase in car crashes in Colorado (IIHS, p. 9).
Hospitalization. Preliminarily looking at the data, it looks like the rate of hospitalizations due to marijuana increased quite a bit. Two things to consider. One is that the rate was already increasing before legalization. Two, and more importantly, is that the discharge diagnosis codes changed in 2015, which makes it more difficult to change the trend. It is why the CDPS was explicit in not reading too much into these preliminary findings (CDPS, p. 78-79).
Treatment Admissions. The good news here is that the number of treatments and the rate of treatment admissions have declines since the legalization of marijuana (CDPS, p. 83-84).
Economic Effects. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released an interesting April 2018 report on the topic of the economic effects. In 2014, recreational marijuana sales were $308M. In 2017, that number went up to $1.1B, which represents a 42.5 percent compound annual growth rate! Colorado State University-Pueblo's Institute of Cannabis Research released a groundbreaking report on net economic cost and benefits for Pueblo County. Its findings? While it cost $23M, it created $58M in benefit, thereby creating a net benefit of $35M.
Marijuana also contributed to 5.4 percent of Colorado's job growth since 2014. The government is also happy because of the tax revenue. In 2014, marijuana tax revenue was $67.8M. By 2017, it climbed to $247.4M.
Postscript: There are a few caveats to note with this analysis The first is this: the CDPS is careful to note that one should not ascribe all the changes in social indicators to marijuana legalization, especially given the societal stigma and legal ramifications attached to marijuana prior to legalization. Colorado Christian University's Centennial Institute made this mistake in its report stating that for every dollar in tax revenue, the State spends $4.50 to deal with the costs. The CCU also fails to isolate the impact of legalization (e.g., stoners existed before the legalization), it compares current tax revenue with calculated costs of all marijuana use over a lifetime (thereby creating a false, non-analogous comparison), and does not include the benefits in public investment (e.g., cops are no longer spending money on chasing non-violent pot users), which is why I did not include the CCU report in my analysis today (see further criticism of CCU report here, here, and here).
There are other caveats to include in this analysis. One is that marijuana research is increasing more in light of legalization. Two is that this only the course over a five-year period. The other caveat is that it is a case study covering one state. While I would not use the Colorado case study by itself as definitive proof, I can say that marijuana legalization looks promising so far. Legalization did not increase youth usage or high school expulsions and dropouts. Treatment admissions have dropped. Marijuana legalization has created more jobs and economic growth. I would not have expected all benefit without any cost, but at the same time, it is nice to see that the benefits seem to be outweighing the costs, and that the fears of the naysayers are by and large unfounded.
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