Can We Be Trusted to Maintain Social Distancing without a Government Mandate?

As the lockdowns carry on, more and more people are having quarantine fatigue. People want to get back to work, have their social life back, or at least something that more closely ressembles life before the lockdowns and "stay-at-home" orders. There are at least six governors, including those of the state of Texas, that are starting to open the economy back up this month. I say "starting to" because allowing people to open up businesses again will be a gradual process. Instead of it being like flipping a switch, think of it more as turning a dial. A new national poll from NBC and Wall Street Journal found that 58 percent worry about opening up the economy too soon. In contrast, about a third are worried about the economy being opened up too late.

There will be a point where governors reverse their edicts. While the lockdowns will end, there will be a period afterwards where we will still need to practice social distancing. Thinking about how life will be after these suppression measures, I think of what the new regulations and norms will be regarding social interaction. A major question in my mind is "Do we need the government to mandate social distancing?" The state of Florida partially opened up its beaches this past weekend, and after seeing a photo of people walking along the beach in Jacksonville (see below), I sort of have to wonder whether the people in the United States have the self-discipline to maintain social distancing while we are in this pandemic.

Sweden provides an interesting case study. They have become a punching bag of sorts for those who vehemently support lockdowns because Sweden's approach has been relaxed in comparison. Sweden has not imposed lockdowns or quarantines. While staying at home is urged by Swedish health officials, it is not mandated. Restaurants and malls are still open. What makes the Swedish model different is that the people individually and voluntarily take on the recommendations made by the health authorities. I'm not going to get into whether the Swedish model is an under-reaction or if the lockdowns throughout much of the Western world are an overreaction because the truth is that we are still in the middle of a large social experiment. We will be debating this for years to come, which is why I will cover the Swedish example at another time. What I do wonder is if the United States could follow a model of personal responsibility and voluntary social distancing once the lockdowns are lifted.

The first thing to consider is the extent to which U.S. citizens were already practicing social distancing before the lockdowns took place. The libertarian Cato Institute covered this point succinctly. In early March, online restaurant reservation company OpenTable found that there was a decline in year-to-year restaurant reservations almost three weeks before lockdowns were the norm.

Air travel was already taking a nosedive prior to the lockdowns, according to Transportation Security Administration (TSA) data [see here]. Human resources association SHRM found that there was a surge in work-from-home arrangements before the lockdowns took place [per its results from March 12-16]. I know I was working remotely about three weeks before my governor officially declared a "stay-at-home" order.

Aside from what happened beforehand, many U.S. citizens are hesitant about returning back "to normal" once the lockdowns are lifted. Here are some interesting finds from polling and survey data:

• 20 percent say they would immediately resume normal activities once the lockdowns are over (Gallup)
• A majority of U.S. citizens think that grocery shopping, attending conferences, or going to family gatherings create a moderate to large risk (Ipsos)
• 81 percent think we should continue social distancing, even if that means damaging the economy (Politico)
• Nearly three-out-of-four people would not attend a sporting event until there is a vaccine for coronavirus (Seton Hall)
• As of April 13, 69 percent of U.S. citizens think we need a month or more before we can start working and return to normal (Harris)
• Two out of three U.S. citizens would not travel for at least three months after COVID-19 subsides (Harris)

Millions opted to practice social distancing before the government mandated it, and the polling data suggest that most people will be hesitant to return back to normal activities because they understand the risks of COVID-19. Opening up the economy is not as simple as President Trump or your state governor telling you it's okay to come out. Even if all the governors permitted "non-essential businesses" (not a fan of that term) to open again, we're not going "back to normal". If anything, we're going to have a "new normal." People are going to need to be convinced that it's safe once more before the economy really can gather traction once more.

Much of the feeling of safety will come from better data. We'll need mass testing, whether molecular or serological. We need to ramp up hospital capacity, especially since the main reason to flatten the curve was to make sure hospitals weren't overwhelmed. There could be some market-baed social distancing regulations. Whatever we do is going to be less-than-ideal, and should not come with some unrealistic goals before we open up the economy again.

I don't have a crystal ball, and I don't know if the number of people who don't take it seriously would be enough to start a second wave, given the rate of transmission for COVID-19. Plus, what if individuals' opinions are going to change as they start to experience freedom and normalcy once more? This doesn't even get into the economic costs that ramp up as we lock down for longer and longer periods of time. I think it partially depends on how cynical you want to be about the American people or humanity generally, and part is how well you think people can handle the concept of personal responsibility or consideration for others. I will also add that societies that allow for the economic freedom and institutional flexibility fare better in times of crisis, according to a study of 212 economic crises since 1993 (Bjørnskov, 2016). We won't know the outcome until we actually lift the lockdowns, but there is enough evidence to suggest that voluntary compliance, economic liberalization, and flexible institutions will help us get through this pandemic.

9-27-2020 Addendum: The Louisiana State University released a study earlier this month using mobility data to show that voluntary actions were more responsible for social distancing than the government lockdowns (Narayanan et al., 2020).