How Lockdowns Became the Catalyst for the Protests and Riots in Response to George Floyd's Death

2020 has already been a crazy year. First, there is a pandemic. Then there is ample panic where multiple countries put their citizenry on lockdown. As a result of the contraction of economic activity caused by these lockdowns, we are experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. If that were not enough, Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin (who is white) knelt on the neck of George Floyd (who was black) for about eight minutes, thereby causing Floyd's unfortunate death. Floyd was arrested after allegedly using a $20 bill at a market. Floyd was already restrained and begging for Chauvin to stop. Floyd's unfortunate death led to their being protests against police brutality throughout the Minneapolis-Saint Paul area. Protests then spread throughout the United States (and eventually internationally) in support of justice and policing reform, as well as a revival of Black Lives Matter at the forefront of media attention. Although there have been peaceful protests, there has also been looting and rioting that has caused considerable economic damage.

The specifics of the Floyd killing, general abuses perpetrated by certain members of law enforcement, and racial disparities that still exist to this day play a clearer role on how we reached the point of protesting and rioting in the United States. The lockdowns, on the other hand, are not an immediately apparent contributor. However, when you think through the nature of the lockdowns and their effects, what we see is that the lockdowns became the catalyst for the protests and riots to take place.

The first and most obvious facet of the lockdowns is the economic damage that the lockdowns have left in their wake. There have been more than 40 million jobless claims. U-6 unemployment, which is a figure that includes discouraged, workers, marginally unattached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, is at 22.4 percent. 40 percent of low-income earners have lost their jobs, which is even more telling since low-income households have fewer savings and financial stability to begin with. While there is some hope that a significant amount of this unemployment is temporary because of the lockdowns, it is nevertheless bad enough where the Great Recession pales in comparison. Paying rent is getting more difficult. The economic stresses caused by the lockdowns is increasing stress-related disease and suicide, what is being labeled "deaths of despair." The mental health organization Well Being Trust made a baseline estimate last month that there will be an extra 75,000 dead from these "deaths of despair."

This gets into the economic concept of opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is "the return of a foregone option less than your return on your chosen option." It is the price of the next best thing you could have made if you did not make your first choice. What does opportunity cost have to do with the riots? Prior to the lockdowns, most people had jobs they had to attend. With the lockdowns, a lot of people have been unable to work and confined in many ways. Business closures make it that much easier to go out protesting or rioting. This economic concept plays out in reality.

Francesco Rocca, who is the head of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, predicted in March that the increased unemployment and and increased risk of suicide would result in social unrest in major Western cities. I expressed concerns about social unrest in early April, and lo and behold, it is here.

We can look at history. The Great Depression saw its fair share of unemployment protesting and riots.  According to the University of Washington, there were 702 such demonstrations between 1930 and 1932. More recently, we can look to the Los Angeles riots of 1992 in response to Rodney King's death. What caused those riots? Two economists also looked at international riot data and cross-city comparisons in context of the L.A. riots of 1992 to find that high unemployment played a major role (DiPasquale and Glaser, 1996).

If certain case studies are not enough, consider this. In its 2013 report, the International Labor Organization (ILO) found that unemployment is the single largest factor in social unrest. To quote the ILO paper, "A one standard deviation increase in unemployment raises social unrest by 0.39 standard deviations, while a one standard deviation increase in GDP growth reduces social unrest by 0.19 standard deviations." People feel restless, stressed, anxious, and angry given everything the lockdowns have caused and the uncertainty surrounding them. Should it be a surprise that research confirms this intuitive concept?

The second facet of lockdowns that contributed to the lockdowns is that of social isolation. In its 2016 report, the centrist Brookings Institution describes to what it refers to as "third places." Third places are places that people spend time at between being at home ("first place") and work ("second place"). Examples of third places are restaurants, houses of worship, recreation centers, pool halls, and parks. They are places that where one can develop community, build relationships, and create positive memories. It is not simply the place that matters, but the people. Human beings are social creatures and thus crave social interaction. We were not meant to work all day and binge-watch Netflix all night. This sort of mass social isolation is not tenable, certainly not anything beyond the immediate-term. The American Psychological Association points out that social isolation can lead to increased risk of "depression, poor sleep quality, impaired executive function, accelerated cognitive decline, poor cardiovascular function, and impaired immunity at every stage of life." In short, the social isolation brought on by the lockdowns caused people to collectively snap.

Finally, there is the additional police enforcement as a result of lockdowns. Lockdowns are a de jure ban on millions who try to earn a living, leave home, or go out to have fun. Combining the criminalizing of these aspects of living with the face mask bans and social distancing requirements, it has caused more friction between law enforcement and citizens trying to enforce what would be considered petty infractions. A few examples to list:

• The New York Police Department reported that there was an increase of altercations as a result of enforcing COVID-related laws.
• Officers in Philadelphia dragged a man off a bus for not wearing a face mask. Similarly, a mother was arrested in New York City for her refusal to wear a face mask.
• A man in the East Village of New York City was beaten for not maintaining social distancing (see video here).
• A woman in Idaho was arrested for being in a closed park, and was charged with trespassing.
• A business owner in Colorado was arrested for using his own property. 
• A SWAT team in Texas raided a bar that defied the lockdown and arrested the proprietors. 
• On the other side of the pond, the United Kingdom has enacted a "bonking ban". Earlier this week, the United Kingdom mandated that having two or more people having sex indoors is prohibited under British law. Good luck enforcing that one!

To recap, economic downturn caused by the lockdowns, the social isolation, and negative interactions with additional police enforcement have created the perfect storm. I'm not here to say that the lockdowns were the sole factor in the riots and protests. Like with so many other phenomena, there are multiple factors. At the same time, we would be kidding ourselves if we thought that the lockdowns played no role whatsoever. The years of policing abuse were the kindling, the lockdowns were the firewood, and the death of George Floyd was the match that lit the fuse on these protests and riots. Let's not forget this as the list of costs incurred by these lockdowns continues to get longer and longer.