We Don't Need a COVID Vaccine Mandate

Almost a year into this pandemic, it is safe to say that just about every single person on the planet is sick and tired of the pandemic and the related restrictions. Fortunately, it seems like the end of the tunnel is near....at least here in the United States. Two vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under emergency use authorization. A third one, Johnson and Johnson, has been recently approved by the FDA, with 20 million doses at the ready. Other countries are also using the Astra-Zeneca vaccine. Vaccines have been produced and approved at a record pace. Operation Warp Speed may very well go down as one of the most private-public partnerships in U.S. history. 

Yet there are some people, such as the New York State Bar Association, are clamoring for vaccines to be mandatory. The argument for a mandate essentially comes down to that of a negative externality. We are in the midst of a pandemic, and until we reach herd immunity, there is a major risk to public health. Mandatory vaccinations would help accelerate the process at which we reach herd immunity. If not, they are a threat to others' health, or so goes the argument. I wrote on the topic of mandatory vaccines seven years ago. I went from being for an opt-in system to mildly being supportive of an opt-out system. Even when recognizing the negative externalities related to certain diseases, I was not supportive of a mandatory vaccine system back then. I still do not think that a mandatory vaccine scheme is necessary now. 

For one, support for vaccines has been increasing. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 51 percent have either taken it or will take it as soon as possible. This is higher than the 34 percent in December 2020. Since December, the number of those who are taking the "wait and see" approach is decreasing, assumedly because more people are waiting and seeing that the vaccines are doing what they are supposed to do. If most that 22 percent of "wait and see" crowd moves from skepticism to being in support of vaccines, it would not be that far off from the 85 percent herd immunity that Dr. Anthony Fauci is calling for. 

While vaccination is essential for reaching herd immunity, what we have to keep in mind is that herd immunity is not solely achieved by vaccination. Those who have already been infected with COVID also attribute to herd immunity. This is where I direct you towards an article in the Wall Street Journal written by Dr. Marty Makary. 

Dr. Makary is not only a well-renown surgeon and best-selling author, but he is also a public health expert at Johns Hopkins, which is a premier postsecondary institution in the healthcare field. Accounting for those who have had mild to no symptoms, Makary estimated that 55 percent of Americans already have natural immunity. The reason for optimism is because Makary was factoring in something a number of scientists seemed to have forgotten about: antigen-specific T cell immunity. Based on laboratory data, mathematical data, and Makary's conversations with health experts, he predicts we should reach herd immunity by April. 

There is also the possibility that a mandate could backfire. As Cato Institute brings up, we live in a  polarized society. There was a recent CBS poll showing increased support, but it showed another trend. Out of those who are hesitant to get the vaccine or downright refuse, one in three of those polled said they feel that way because they do not trust the government. It could very well fuel the anti-vaxxer campaigns of misinformation and could ironically delay herd immunity. 

There are other arguments I briefly want to touch upon. It is possible that such a mandate is not constitutional for the time being. I could bring up the normative argument that we should not be forced to have something injected into our bodies. This is all the more true considering that we cannot guarantee a germ-free or risk-free environment. I could inject some further context and ask whether we need to force vaccinations: 

• The Spanish Flu, for example, took anywhere from 20 to 50 million lives. This does not factor in the fact that the world population was significantly smaller than it is now. Other infections have been deadlier, including the Bubonic Plague, the Plague of Justinian, the AIDS epidemic. It would not be hard to argue that as bad as COVID is, it is still mild by historic comparisons. 
• COVID-19 disproportionately affects the elderly and immunocompromised. For the elderly, it is still not exactly a death sentence. For those who are 85 years old, the death rate is 15 percent. For those who are 75 years old, it is 4.6 percent (Owusu-Boaitey and Cochran, 2020). 
• COVID's overall lethality ranges from 3.7 times to 10 times what the seasonal flu is. For context, there were 28,000 flu deaths out of 38,000,000 flu infections, which is a lethality of 0.07 percent in the 2019-20 flu season (CDC). 

Even if we needed to accelerate vaccinations further, there are better ways of going about it than a vaccine mandate. In September, I argued that a $300 billion subsidy to pay people to take the vaccine. This would be a more targeted stimulus, and would be cheaper than the $1.9 trillion boondoggle of a stimulus package that the Democrats are trying to pass, a bill that has very little to do with COVID-related relief, I might add. 

Conclusion: To recap, there are multiple reasons to see that a COVID vaccine mandate is unnecessary. For one, we are ramping up vaccine development and distribution. Two, there is increased support for vaccines. More and more people are realizing the importance of vaccines and are seeing that they work. Three, there are a significant number of people with natural immunity contributing to herd immunity. Four, the political climate could attribute to a backfiring of a vaccine mandate. Five, there are constitutional and normative factors to consider, as well. Ultimately, while I think vaccination is vital for the end of this pandemic, I also do not find any reason to have vaccines mandated.