Making Tomatoes Expensive Again: How Trump's Tomato Tariffs Will Squeeze Your Wallet

From salsa and salads to ketchup and tomato sauce, tomatoes are one of the most consumed produce items in the United States. While tomatoes serve multiple culinary purposes, the U.S. tomato market is being threatened. In April, the Trump administration withdrew from a suspension agreement on fresh tomatoes from Mexico. 

With the termination of this agreement, the U.S. Department of Commerce is implementing an antidumping duty of 20.91 percent on tomato imports from Mexico that is to take effect today: July 14, 2025. DOC claims that the agreement failed to protect U.S. tomato farmers from the "unfairly priced Mexican imports." An anti-dumping duty is a type of tariff that only comes into play when there is evidence of "dumping." Dumping is when foreign companies sell goods at prices lower than what they sell for in their home market or below the cost of production. 

The U.S. government, in short, is unhappy that Mexico can and does sell tomatoes at a much lower price than U.S. farmers. As I have explained with tax policy and who pays their "fair share," it is amazing how much fairness is in the eye of the beholder. We will get into the fairness aspect in a moment. What is worth mentioning is that Mexico accounts for 90 percent of U.S. tomato imports and 61 percent of overall tomato consumption. Fruit imports account for 60 percent of the fruits consumed in the U.S., which is twice the share in comparison to what it was in the early 1980s.

What is even more undeniable is that these tariffs will increase the costs of tomatoes. Based on mainstream microeconomic theory, tariffs decrease the quantity of imports, thereby increasing prices. It is not mere economic theory. Trump's tariffs during his first term cost the average U.S. household $831 per year. Looking at the tomato market, it is no mystery why tomato prices will increase.

Mexico has a cost advantage due to lower labor costs, a longer growing season, and better climatic conditions for growing tomatoes. What the DOC does not want to recognize is that Mexico simply has a natural market relationship in which Mexican tomato farmers are better positioned to supply tomatoes than U.S. tomato farmers, especially in the winter. U.S. tomato farmers in Florida have had to plow their tomatoes because increased picking and packing costs render them unprofitable to pick. With Trump's onerous deportations on top of it, undocumented workers who would have otherwise picked the tomatoes are too scared to work, thereby increasing tomato costs further. 

The think-tank American Action Forum (AAF) estimates that these tariffs will increase the cost of tomatoes by 8 cents a pound, or about a 7 percent increase. That estimate assumes that the only cost will be U.S. consumers paying for the cost increase because a spoiler for Trump: the vast majority of the cost of his tariffs is passed on to everyday Americans. 

Due to consumer expectations and U.S. businesses wanting to avoid profit margin decay, the AAF's estimate in cost increase could increase to 15 cents, or an 11 percent increase in cost. Since Mexico accounts for 90 percent of U.S. tomato imports and 61 percent of overall tomato consumption, the United States will need to try to compensate for the shortfall in meeting demand. 

In order to do so, the United States would need anywhere between 42,000 to 250,000 additional acres dedicated to tomato production. This is upwards of six times the size of Washington, DC. However, given that the United States does not have that advantage, odds are that there will be fewer tomatoes to eat. Not only that, this will mean less economic output. A study from Texas A&M (Ribera et al., 2025) shows that Mexican tomato imports to the United States create over $8 billion in economic impact, an impact that supports approximately 47,000 jobs in the United States (see below).

Whether it is with steel, automobiles, or movies, Trump still fails to realize that tariffs are a classic instance of "cut off your nose to spite your face." Interest groups demand tariffs and they often win because the concentrated benefits are more visible than the dispersed costs on millions of consumers. 

Trump was quick to blame Biden during the presidential campaign about causing food inflation. Let there be no mistake: Biden's fiscal policy contributed to food inflation. In its supposed quest to pursue market "fairness," Trump is going to protect a few well-connected farmers. As a result, Trump will raise tomato prices for the everyday consumer while slashing economic output and destroying jobs. American consumers and Mexican farmers should not be punished simply because Mexican farmers are better at producing affordable tomatoes. Affordable tomatoes are now the latest casualty in Trump's trade war and tariff turmoil.