Astronomer Carl Sagan once said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. That principle is especially relevant when the claim in question is not merely whether a military has committed wrongful acts in war, but that it has deliberately targeted children as a part of a broader strategy amounting to genocide. In both moral and legal terms, this is among the most serious accusations that can be leveled against any state or armed force. The accusation of targeting children heightens the claim because under humanitarian law, children are treated as a protected category. It also implies a level of moral depravity and legal culpability that international law reserves for the worst of the worst.
Yet a recent United Nations Commission report precisely makes that allegation against Israel in the context of the war in Gaza. It concludes that Israel not only caused widespread death and suffering, but that it formed part of a broader strategy to destroy the future of the Palestinians in Gaza by targeting children as a "biological and social continuity" of that group.
This is not the first time that the UN has advanced sweeping claims against Israel that later proved controversial or methodologically fragile. The UN falsely accused Israel of causing food shortages of Gaza, implying it was part of some master strategy to starve Gazans. The UN also blindly accepted Gazan casualty statistics that exaggerated children fatalities, with the effect of making it look like the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were targeting women and children. The UN perpetuating refugee status and Jew-hatred under UNRWA also does not help matters.
This does not by itself prove the UN's latest allegations false, but it does warrant extraordinary caution of what the UN claims. Therefore, it is necessary to determine whether the Commission's findings themselves actually confirm if the IDF deliberately targeted children in Gaza or not.
To conclude that Israel deliberately targeted children, the Commission would need produce evidence of intent, not merely evidence of harm. In the law of armed conflict, intent may be established from direct proof, whether it is orders, directives, or communications. This was the sort of thing observable during the Nanjing Massacre, the murder of children during the Holocaust, ISIS targeting Yazidi children in Iraq, and the Srebrenica massacre. Alternatively, such intent could be inferred through highly compelling circumstances evidence that excludes reasonable alternative explanations.
The Commission does not present this kind of evidence. Instead, it infers intent from the scale and pattern of child casualties, assuming that a) each child killed in Gaza was killed by the IDF, and b) the child was targeted simply because a child died. Another way to put it: what the UN Commission does is it makes the evidentiary leap from "children have died in this war" to "Israel is targeting children." But even if one were to acknowledge the existence of large-scale harm, that by itself does not prove intent.
As I have explained before when refuting false claims accusing Israel of committing genocide, for something to be considered genocide, one would have to be able to infer that genocidal intent is the only reasonable inference from the evidence. Here are some things that the United Nations conveniently leaves out of or minimizes in its reporting that show that is far from the case.
We have to remember that it is a Hama that started this war by raping, kidnapping, torturing, and murdering over 1,200 civilians. Since 1948, Israel has been surrounded by Arab entities that want to wipe it off the map, including the genocidal entity known as Hamas. That by itself does not give the IDF a carte blanche to do what it wants in response. But what follows points out that genocide is not a reasonable conclusion based on the evidence.
Civilian casualties are sadly a consequence of armed conflict. Children casualties are going to be an outcome given that about half of Gaza's population is under 18. More to the point, Gaza is one of the most densely populated battlefields in modern history, making this outcome even more inevitable.
There is one other sad truth to acknowledge: not all individuals under 18 in this conflict zone are necessarily noncombatant casualties. Armed groups in Gaza have been known to recruit and train minors to participate in hostilities against Israel. This further underscores why aggregate references to "child casualties" is insufficient, and is one other area in which the UN overstates their case.
Even if one were to accept the Commission's casualty figures (which again, I would hesitate since the UN has accepted exaggerated casualty numbers before), neither a high civilian death toll nor a particular civilian-to-combatant ratio can substitute for genocidal intent.
Hamas has a long-standing practice of using its civilians as human shields. The UN also ignores that Hamas has embedded vast tunnel networks, weapons stockpiles, booby-trapped buildings, and command facilities in civilian infrastructure. Without this context, the UN does not capture the complexities that the IDF faces while fighting Hamas and dismisses that these deaths could have been caused by crossfire, militant Hamas activity, or an unfortunate consequence of urban warfare.
Furthermore, Israel's conduct is inconsistent with genocidal intent. The IDF has put warnings to civilians out before strikes (e.g., evacuation notices, phone calls, text messages), which no other military in history has done because they would lose the tactical advantage and incur military cost. The IDF has also allowed for humanitarian corridors and humanitarian aid to enter to reduce civilian suffering.
Another point: Israel has a multi-ethnic and multi-religious population that includes about 2 million Muslims who are given equal rights under the law. It would be an odd policy for a government that was intent on exterminating Muslims to simultaneously extend full legal equality to Muslims in its borders. But then again, these are the sort of loops that the anti-Israel side jumps through to believe in this accusation.
Ultimately, the UN does not prove evidence showing its headline allegation that the IDF is targeting children. All of this context in the previous paragraphs provides a reasonable, alternative explanation for the scale of child casualties in Gaza. However, the report gives those alternative explanations insufficient considerations and jumps straight to genocide as the only explanation, which is out of touch with the reality on the ground. This sort of inferential leap without sufficient evidence not only should give us reason to pause, but for any rational and sane person, it is yet another example that puts the UN's supposed objectivity and impartiality into question.
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