Back in February, I had analyzed that Iran’s economic infrastructure is so poor that they can’t even produce the millions upon millions of gallons of oil, let alone put together a nuclear bomb. The CIA, however, begs to differ. As stated in their recent report to Congress, "Iran continues to develop a range of capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so.”
The CIA’s report helps confirm the IAEA’s earlier report confirming their nuclear capabilities. It seems that Obama has even had his dose of reality since his last meeting with French President Nicholas Sarkosy. They are putting up a front to make sanctions against Iran in hopes that other nations will follow suit. As Obama himself stated, "My hope is that we are going to get this done this spring," Obama said. "I'm interested in seeing that regime in place in weeks."
If Obama is truly interested in stopping Iran, he will put pressure to have Congress hammer out the differences in H.R. 2194 as soon as possible. Although this will be a step in the right direction, other nations need to put sanctions on Iran because “the more, the merrier [except if you’re Iran].” The obstacle for multilateral sanctions is China and Russia. The reason for this notion is the simple neo-realist concept of balance of power. In short, China and Russia don’t want the United States exerting its power in Central Asia. Russian-Iranian relations have been at an all-time high, and China finds that Iran will be useful for economic gain, the sole stabilizing force of internal Chinese affairs. Since the United States does not exert enough power to have China obey upon America’s say-so, the only way to change China’s mind is to take the drastic action of the United States to withdraw all of its economic activity out of China.
But I digress….slightly. Before I get too carried away, let’s see if Obama can abandon his foreign policy of “stick it to your friends while kowtowing to your enemies” before we discuss multilateralism.