As long as Japan and China have been around, I am at least somewhat surprised that Sino-Japanese relations (中日關係) have not been contentious for a longer period of time. On the other hand, Japan remained relatively isolationist prior to the Meiji restoration in the 19th century. Sino-Japanese relations were a bit messy in the First Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895), but they got really tumultuous with the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945) on account of the Nanjing Rape of 1937 (南京大屠殺). As you can imagine, relations between the two countries were strained as a result. Things did not really start improving until Shinzo Abe came into power and released a report in 2010 acknowledging the WWII-era atrocities committed. After that, disputes over rare earth metals and the Senkaku Islands put further strain on Sino-Japanese relations. Combine that with a mutual dislike between Chinese and Japanese people (BBC), and it is not a surprise that Sino-Japanese relations have not been going well this decade, even in spite of the fact that Japan and China are major trading partners.
If studying international relations over the years has reminded me of anything, it is how quickly the nature of alliances can change. Since the beginning of 2018, Trump has gone on the offensive on his trade. China has become the primary target in this trade war, and back in July, I made the case for why Trump should knock it off. However, Trump has decided that he wants to go after the U.S.' allies with tariffs, including Japan. In September, Trump threatened to enact a 25 percent national security tariff on Japanese automobiles and trucks. Trump met with Abe in late September, but it looks like it was more of a delaying tactic than anything else.
As a result of both sides are feeling pressure from President Trump (Wall Street Journal), there seems to be a thawing of Sino-Japanese relations. Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese President Shinzo Abe met to discuss the future of Sino-Japanese relations. Does this mean that everything is copasetic between the two nations? Hardly. Does this mean that things will end up amicably between China and Japan? No, it does not. There are still strategic issues of a military nature. The United States still remains as Japan's primary military ally. Japan has also increased its alliances with Australia and India in hopes to keep China in check. Given the zero-sum nature of geo-politics in eastern Asia, I'm confident both Xi and Abe know why they are meeting.
However, since China is dealing with other economic issues, including a devaluing currency, a real estate bubble, and government debt, it is not shocking that China is trying to hold together its economic clout. Plus, let's not forget that Trump foolishly decided to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on his first day in office. All that these economic forces do is draw Japan closer to China, even in spite of militaristic and nationalistic factors. This is another unintended consequence of trade wars, especially when when the President enacts trade barriers on the U.S.' allies: it becomes that much more likely to push your allies towards your perceived enemy. If diminishing trade flows with allies in order to pursue some zero-sum protectionism hokum is your idea of making America great again, I fail to see the economic sense or the appeal in doing so. I hope Trump can see the harm he is doing by eroding relations with allies. Otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised if the result is handing over international power, both militaristic power and soft power, over to China.
12-13-2018 Addendum: Political scientist Jeffrey Hornung of the Rand Corporation is not so optimistic that China and Japan are going to get along. He has three reasons for such skepticism: difference of position on disputed territories, difference in threat perception, and difference in vision of international order.
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