In July 2001, Portugal underwent a controversial social experiment. Portugal decided to decriminalize all of its drugs for personal use, including such harder drugs as crack and cocaine. Portugal has had the longest and most extensive drug decriminalization policy in play. If successful, the Portuguese case study would have major implications for drug policy across the world.
Last week, the Washington Post (WaPo) wrote a scathing piece on how Portugal was experiencing fatigue with the experiment. According to WaPo, the Portuguese police are blaming increased crime on the drug use. WaPo described streets littered with drug-related paraphernalia, not to mention the long waits for state-funded rehabilitation treatment. WaPo poses the hypothetical question as to whether Portugal should question the success of the decriminalization. It is a question that I would like to answer non-rhetorically and to do so with some questions of my own.
How do Portugal's drug statistics now compare to those from pre-2001? This policy was implemented in the first place due to high levels of heroin use, increased drug addiction, and Portugal having the highest HIV infection rate in 1999. Things have gotten better since then. Oxford University data show that the drug disorder death rate in Portugal was 0.8 per 100,000. In 2019, it was 0.38 per 100,000. One metric that stayed constant was share of population with drug use disorder, i.e., 0.8 percent (Oxford). Even better, a study from the Institute of Labor Economics (Félix et al., 2017) and a study from Sage Journal (Cabral, 2017) show that Portugal's drug policy caused a decrease in heroin and cocaine seizures, drug offenses, drug deaths, and a reduction in the incidence of drug addicts among HIV individuals.
How does drug use in Portugal compare to other countries? WaPo could not even avoid a certain reality. As we see from European Union data, drug use rates in Portugal are still lower than other European countries. Portugal's cannabis use is less than half of other countries as Spain, France, and Germany. As for cocaine use, it is about a tenth of these countries. As we see from the Oxford data, Portugal's drug death and drug use disorder rates remained lower than that of the rest of Europe since decriminalization.
Even so, WaPo points out that drug use, overdoses, and drug-related crime increase from 2019 to 2023. Based on previous research, Portugal's drug policy seemed to have been going well prior to 2019. What could have possibly happened between 2019 and 2023 that could have caused a change? Perhaps a once-in-a-century pandemic in which governments across the world imposes onerous and harmful lockdowns. The United Nations was astute enough to realize the increase in drug usage was not confined to Portugal, but was a worldwide phenomenon due to the pandemic. As for the fatigue, it is plausible that two-plus years of pandemic mode and all the corresponding fear-mongering contributed to wearing out the police officers.
Drug decriminalization by itself was not going to solve everything. Congregating with drug users and disturbing residents, leaving needles on the streets is unacceptable. Even under a libertarian philosophy, those create externalities and constitutes as a violation of the nonaggression axiom that arguably should be handled by the police. It is not perfect, but decriminalization beats the social costs that come with drug prohibition.
Providing access to needle-exchange programs, make naloxone more available, and improving drug rehabilitation services can all be part of a more comprehensive response that can further help Portugal with its progress. But make no mistake: Portugal shifting its drug policy from punishment and incarceration to harm reduction with decriminalization was a huge step in the right direction.
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