Sticks, Stones, and Statutes: Words Are Not Violence and Free Speech Must Never Become a Crime

Imagine a world where saying something controversial would not be considered speech, but rather an act of harm. I am not talking about metaphorical harm as in emotional discomfort, but actual violence. For most of history, that notion would have been considered extreme or exaggerated, but not anymore. Welcome to 2025! According to a recent survey from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), over 90 percent of college students believe that words are actual violence. 

Harm Is Not the Same Thing as Violence

To understand why these survey findings matter, we must first discuss why words are not violence in any meaningful sense. Those who believe that speech is violence do so under the assumption that harm is sufficient to consider speech violence. Let us think through that for a second. There are many things that can cause psychological harm: job loss, breakups, gossip, divorce, a lousy boss (I have had a couple), or facing failure in life. It would mean that a professor issuing a failing grade, a therapist confronting their patient, a friend talking an addict out of addiction, or a partner breaking up would all be considered acts of violence. This is not to say that words cannot cause harm, whether that is stress, fear, psychological deterioration, or other emotions. Words do matter and they have the potential to wound deeply. At the same time, the existence of harm does not erase the distinction of what makes violence so reprehensible. 

Why Violence Is a Distinct Moral and Legal Category

Violence has been its own distinct moral and legal category, and for good reason. Violence refers to the use of physical force or coercion against someone else. Violence describes a type of action, not an intensity of outcome or effect. It is a definition that matters because there is a fine line: violence bypasses consent and autonomy entirely. A punch to the face does not ask to be debated. Violence does not persuade, argue, or appeal; it overwhelms and removes agency. This is why violent acts have been treated seriously under the law. It is such a bright line that even under a libertarian lens, it justifies defensive force and criminal punishment precisely because it leaves no room for choice or bodily autonomy. 

Speech Preserves Agency, But Violence Eliminates It

One reason that "hate speech is violence" is problematic is because this equivocation undermines personal responsibility. Speech can cause harm, but at least it still allows for moral agency. Moral reasoning implies that individuals can hear words, experience discomfort or even experience harm, and still choose how to respond. As Stoic philosopher Epictetus stated that, "Men are not disturbed by things, but by the views they take of them." First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt famously said "no one can make you feel inferior without your consent." Speech can persuade, insult, inspire, or offend, but it does not compel. Even the harshest of rhetoric gives the listener the freedom to reject it, ignore it, or respond in kind. Violence gives people no such quarter. Believing that speech is violence is not a progression in morality. Treating speech as violence implies that people are passive victims of words and have zero agency. It is subtly dehumanizing because it robs people of their dignity and their moral resilience. 

Why Treating Speech as Violence Harms the Law

If the U.S. government were to ever categorize "hate speech" as a category of violence, the country would be screwed because it collapses useful distinctions upon which law, morality, and civil society depend. As I detailed in a previous piece I wrote about gender identity and legal categories, I argued that when the law abandons clear definitions in favor of vague, ever-expanding categories, it cannot protect human rights. The same danger exists here. If there is not a clear legal definition of violence and if the state ever decided that violence included hurtful speech, both the self-defense doctrine and freedom of speech boundaries would crumble. Disagreement would become an act of assault and there would be no distinction between persuasion and coercion. 

This concern is not new. In a 2023 piece I wrote, I warned how the woke Left's attempt to control language was already beginning to erode a sense of clarity. Today, the stakes are even higher. Labeling words as "violence" follows the same pattern, which collapses distinctions that allow society to separate persuasion from coercion, disagreement from assault, and offense from real harm. Without distinguishing between regular communication and assault, the definition of violence would be broken. 

When "Violence" Becomes a Euphemism for Disapproval

This pernicious definition would give the government a carte blanche to police speech. Why? Because especially in our age of fragility, the list of what can trigger or cause emotional distress is subjective and never-ending. Under this framework, violence would simply become a catch-all phrase for "I find this to be unpleasant, offensive, or emotionally distressing." The word no longer defines a uniquely heinous or dangerous act, but rather is a euphemism signaling moral disapproval. Once that happens, nothing is violence in any meaningful sense.

This is why the need to protect speech is more urgent than ever. As I argued in a 2024 piece, with roughly half of Americans openly hostile to certain kinds of speech, society cannot afford to redefine disagreement as assault. Without clear boundaries, we do not only risk misunderstanding. We risk the suppression of dialogue. If we took that authoritarian premise to its logical conclusion and caved into every microaggression or instance of emotional discomfort, freedom of expression would be dead. 

How Calling Words "Violence" Leads to Real Violence

Labeling words as violence would open the door for people to be physically violent towards one another because once words are labeled as "violence,” responding with force can be framed as self-defense rather than retaliation. Counter-violence would be legitimized and there would be a cultural permission for escalation, thereby increasing the risk of a downward spiral towards more violence. After all, this moral flattening and equivocation is how political activist and author Charlie Kirk was assassinated. Violence must mean actual violence, and not merely emotional harm or discomfort. Otherwise, the very concept that justifies society's strongest prohibitions is emptied of any actual substance. In short, saying that words are actual violence would cause society to take a nosedive.  

The Grave Cost of Losing the Meaning of Words

Even after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the vast majority of college students believe that words are violence. I find this to be disturbing. After four years of so-called "education" and tens of thousands of dollars spent in tuition, most students these days cannot understand the difference between conversation and coercion. This is the end-result of an educational culture that values emotional validation over facts, logic, or reason. All violence causes harm, but not all harm causes violence. Losing that distinction between violence and harm means that society cannot tell the difference between force and freedom. It also means that Charlie Kirk will be the first of many to be a victim to the toxic notion that "words are violence." America can and must do better if it is to remain a free, democratic society. Otherwise, do not be surprised when the United States descends into greater political polarization and political violence.

Burning Bright at Any Percentage: The Chanukah Miracle of Light, Effort, and Purpose

Chanukah is a time to reflect on one of the most miraculous moments in Jewish history: the victory of a small group of Jewish warriors over the powerful Seleucid Empire, and the subsequent rededication of the Holy Temple in Jerusalem. When Jews around the world light the menorah, which miracle are they celebrating? Is it the military victory itself or is it the fact that the oil that was supposed to last one night lasted eight nights? I asked myself this very question a couple of years ago. Much like the Talmudic rabbis (Talmud, Shabbat 21b), I sided more on the long-lasting oil theory. 

Upon delving further into the miracle of Chanukah, the answer becomes more nuanced than long-lasting oil. Was it merely that the oil lasted for eight nights? If the miracle was that the oil, which was supposed to last only one night, lasted eight nights, we should only celebrate for seven nights since the miracle was the extra seven nights. I was sitting in synagogue this past Saturday and the rabbi mentioned Rabbi Yosef Dov Soloveitchik, also known as the Beis HaLevi (19 c.), in his sermon (d'var Torah). 

The Beis HaLevi's Reframing of the Miracle

The Beis HaLevi reframed the miracle of Chanukah. The Priests (Kohanim) knew there was only enough oil for one night. The Kohanim divided the oil into eight equal portions with the intent of burning a little each night for the full eight nights. The miracle is that, even with a scarcity of oil, it burned all eight nights and with the same intensity had there been a full supply. This helps explain why we celebrate Chanukah for eight nights and not seven nights. The rabbi I was listening to then emphasized how the miracle of Chanukah was not about quantity so much as it was about quality. 

Quality Over Quantity: A Lesson from the Talmud

We find this idea of quality over quantity in the Talmud (Berachot 5b). Rabbi Elazar fell ill and he was weeping. Rabbi Yochanan asked him why he was weeping. It was not due to the suffering he endured, which makes sense given he had to give up financial security to study Torah (Berachot 28a). Rather, he was not able to study Torah as much as he would like. Rabbi Yochanan comforted him, saying that if one person brought a large sacrifice to the Temple and another one a meager one, they are both equally meritorious if their heart was directed towards Heaven. If anything, I would argue that it was because of his strife that his sacrifice was more meaningful. 

The Shema: Wholehearted and Imperfect Devotion

The connection between the menorah shining brightly in spite of limited oil and Rabbi Elazar's heartfelt effort in Torah learning is that both can shine brightly if there is the quality, i.e., devotion. But what do we do when we are not at 100 percent? The menorah in the Chanukah story did not operate at 100 percent and yet it still shone. We see this concept in one of the most iconic of Jewish texts, the Shema. In the Shema (Deuteronomy 6:5), Jews are told to love G-d with all their heart, soul, and might. The Shema's call to love G-d is not about being perfect or operating at full throttle. It is about giving your best at every moment, no matter where we are at in life. By accepting that perfection is not the goal, the Shema offers us a sigh of relief. It allows us to engage with spiritual practice not as a burden of flawless performance, but as an opportunity to be present and genuine, regardless of where we are at in life. 

Wax versus Oil: Authenticity in Action

This lesson of being our best selves finds resonance in the way we light the menorah. I brought this up in 2016 when I examined the tension between the oil candles and the wax candles. The oil candles symbolize the ideal, the pure, and unwavering devotion. As the Shema teaches us, we cannot be perfect all the time. This is where the wax candles come into play. Wax candles, like so many of us, represent that we are not pure or perfect, but that our light can shine just as bright and authentic as the oil candles. The oil candles represent the spiritual aspiration, whereas the wax candles represent the reality of doing our best within the context of our imperfections and limitations. There are moments when we burn like the oil candle and others like the wax candle. We have to remember that our life circumstances mean that we have a bit of each in our lives. 

Finding Light in Imperfection

Much like wax candles, Rabbi Elazar was unable to offer perfection, but he offered sincere and earnest devotion. This reflects the message of the Shema, which is that we are to love G-d with all of our heart, soul, and might. We are not meant to be perfectly performing automatons. What matters is that we give wholeheartedly. We do not give our best 100 percent of the time because no one is capable of that feat. We give the best in every moment, whether it is at our peak or having reached rock bottom. 

This brings us to the heart of the Chanukah miracle as understood by the Beis HaLevi. The oil that survived warfare did not merely endure. It shone just as brightly as a full supply of oil. Like the menorah, our actions can burn just as brightly if offered with sincerity and intention. Whether we burn like pure, unwavering oil or like the imperfect wax candle, the light we offer is still meaningful. This Chanukah, may we shine with the authenticity, sincerity, and effort to wholeheartedly do our best, even in the darkest of times. 

Two Years of Milei: Is Argentina's Libertarian Gamble a Miracle or Mayhem?

Two years into President Javier Milei's presidency, Argentina remains in the midst of one of the most ambitious economic overhauls attempted by any modern democracy. What began as shock therapy for an ailing economy evolved into a test of whether a country long plagued by populism, interventionism, and government spending can reinvent itself and be a thriving again. 

Argentina is moving past the initial chaos of Milei's early reforms. Expectations, results, and political reality are all colliding into an interesting intersection, especially in light of the recent midterm elections giving Milei a bigger mandate than I imagine Milei himself was anticipating. With yesterday marking the two-year anniversary of Milei getting elected into office, it is time to see where Milei stands and whether his libertarian gamble has paid off. 

Milei's Successes 

Much like I did during Milei's one-year anniversary, here are some of the indicators that show that Argentina is faring better than it was before Milei assumed the presidency: 

Inflation rate - Argentina has had a chronic inflation problem, as the country's inflation data from El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) indicates. The increase in inflation that Argentina goes through in a month is what a typical Western nation goes through in a year, which gives an idea of the economic pain that Argentina endures. For the most recent month available, October 2025, that number was an increase of 2.3 percent. However, this is much lower than the peak of 25.5 percent that Argentina reached in December 2023 (Reuters). Argentina's annual inflation rate has not been this low since 2018. If Milei can continue with reducing inflation, it will show durable growth, investment, and social-economic stability.

GDP - As INDEC GDP data indicate, Argentina's GDP has been on an overall growth trajectory since Q4 2024. It cooled off a bit in Q2 2025 at -0.1 percent, but on a year-to-year basis, Argentina's economy expanded by 6.3 percent. Why did it not start growing before Q4 2024? Because Milei implemented shock therapy to the economy, including massive cuts to public spending, removing subsidies, a 54 percent devaluation, and tight monetary policy. These were all necessary measures to get hyperinflation under control, but they do mess with short-term economic output. 

Fiscal consolidation - Fiscal consolidation, which is the reduction of deficits through spending restraint, subsidy cuts, and  improved revenue discipline, has been one of the clearest markers of Argentina's policy shift under Milei. As this OECD report shows, Argentina achieving a primary surplus after years of chronic imbalances sharply reduced the need for money printing. Fiscal consolidation helps stabilize prices and expectations. These moves signal to investors and markets that Argentina is laying the groundwork for a more sustainable and growth-oriented economy. 

Capital markets - An August 2025 IMF report shows that Argentina regained access to capital markets ahead of schedule. Decades of defaults, capital controls, and runaway inflation effectively closed off Argentina from the global capital markets, leaving the country more reliant on domestic financing. According to the IMF, fiscal consolidation, monetary tightening, and foreign exchange rate liberalization rebuilt investor confidence enough to start opening up access once more. The reason why this is important is that it suggests restored and improving investor confidence, which is a key precondition for foreign investment, external financing, and sustainable growth. As long as there are not renewed or external shocks, this should hold for Argentina.

Areas for Improvement

While I commend Milei for these accomplishments, there is still work that needs to be done for Argentina to truly reform. I am not going to be able to cover everything, but these are a few that caught my eye.

Labor Market Pressure - INDEC measures what is "labor market pressure," which is a combination of unemployed, underemployed, and those seeking another job. This aggregate figure is at 30.5 percent, when it was at 29.7 percent the year before. This figure is concerning for Milei because it signals labor stress beyond the official unemployment rate. Essentially, it implies that Milei's reforms have yet to translate into widespread labor market confidence. This is an issue because without contracts, benefits, or stable incomes to make formal employment more attractive, Milei's economic growth will happen more slowly than he would like. 

Corruption and Civil Liberties - There was no improvement of Argentina's scoring in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). This can suggest that Milei's approach has not translated into stronger accountability, transparency, or control over corruption. PEN International also expressed concerns about freedom of expression declining since Milei came into power. On the other hand, Argentina's Freedom House score remains steady at 85 and Argentina is still classified as a Free Nation. Considering that Argentina was run by a military junta that was kidnapping citizens about half a century ago, this is a good thing. 

Cost of Living Pain - Even as inflation has decreased considerably by Argentinean standards, that does not mean that everything is hunky-dory. This was a paradox I experienced when I visited Argentina a couple of months ago, that the macroeconomic figures looked good, but things are still quite unaffordable. First, lower price increases do not ignore that prices continue to rise and that it's still expensive. Second, there are certain goods that skyrocketed. For example, the public services basket, which includes gas, transport, water, and electricity, increased by about 526 percent since December 2023. This is in contrast to the 164 percent by which the overall Consumer Price Index increased. In other words, the public services basket increased about three times the overall inflation. 

Food Prices and the Poor - This is also the case for food prices. Meat, dairy, and bread saw particular spikes in 2025. Food inflation is a persistent problem in Argentina, especially for the poor and those working in the informal labor market. Since these staples remain expensive for many households, it does not feel like gains are being made. Food prices rose to a new high plateau during the initial economic shock therapy in 2024, which hits the poor harder because a larger percent of their income goes to food. Milei is fixing the macroeconomy and doing so faster than anticipated. This is not unique to Argentina's economic shock therapy. It follows the same moral geometry that happens with any economic shock therapy. Why? The poor feel the costs the most because they are the least able to absorb those shocks. The question is how longer it will take for Milei to complete the transition, and how longer the poor can endure the associated costs.

Postscript

Given the mess that Milei inherited, I would say that he has done an outstanding job. Milei's first two years have shown that fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and reducing public spending can bring inflation down, balance the budget, and increase economic growth. While these are major successes in comparison to what Argentina was like in 2023, there are still considerable challenges. The formal labor market has shrunk, informal labor remains large, and many households face economic stress, regardless of what official poverty statistics have to say. 

I brought this up when analyzing Argentina's monetary policy vis-à-vis the crawling band last October. Argentina needs to go beyond macroeconomic headline numbers. For Argentina to have long-term growth, Milei will need to address deep structural challenges alongside his macroeconomic reforms. This includes deregulating labor to encourage more formal hiring, simplifying the tax code, liberalizing trade to boost competitiveness, and phasing out subsidies and price controls, to name a few. Even with a stronger mandate from the midterms, Milei's reforms still face political pushback, social resistance, and institutional inertia that could slow or complicate the path to longer-term stability. But If Milei can navigate the landmines entailed in implementing these next steps, the foundations for long-term prosperity will be established and economic stability will become a norm for Argentina.

¡Viva la libertad, carajo! 

Another Silent Cost of Lockdowns: Language and Social-Cognitive Delays That Threaten Children’s Potential

It is hard to believe that the COVID-19 pandemic began nearly six years ago. In some respects, it feels like it happened yesterday. I remember shortly before the lockdowns started to take effect in the United States, I wrote about how we should have relied more on voluntary social distancing instead of lockdowns. Unfortunately, politicians across the country (and indeed the world) panicked and imposed lockdowns in the name of "following the science," even in spite of the fact that pandemic guidance from the likes of the World Health Organization and Johns Hopkins was to not implement lockdowns. 

Children Paid the Price

Many warned that such unprecedented restrictions would come with considerable costs, myself included. Years later, the ramifications of those lockdowns are playing out. I wrote a three-parter on it earlier this year (see here, here, and here). What is sad is that children bore the brunt of these costs. I first discussed in 2022 how lockdowns, school closures, and other pandemic measures would impose heavy costs on children. Sadly, the evidence continues to mount. 

Scotland's Shock: The Lancet Study

A study published at the Lancet (Hardie et al., 2025) last month adds something more alarming to the ledger, even more so when I covered a British study in 2023 about lockdowns and social-emotional development. It examined the relationship between COVID-19 public & social health measures (PSHM) and developmental concerns among about 258,000 Scottish children. This is significant since it is the largest known analysis of population-level statistics to assess the relationship between PSHM and development concerns in Europe, which is a great sample size. What did the study find? The study's most pronounced findings were a reduction in language acquisition and social-cognitive skills. These delays were more pronounced in children from families with fewer resources, i.e., the poor. The proportion of toddlers flagged with at least one developmental concern increased by up to 6.6 percentage points compared with pre-lockdown trends.

Not an Isolated Incident: A Global Problem

You can say that this was an observational study, so it is not as good as an experimental study in respect to proving causation. You can also say that it was limited to Scotland, so you cannot extrapolate too much. Here's the thing. This is not the only study to find such delays:

• A cohort comparison study found that 3.5-5.5-year-old children tested after the lockdowns performed significantly worse on "false-belief" tasks (a measure of social cognition) the similar pre-pandemic children, even after controlling for age and language ability (Scott et al., 2024).
• A meta-analysis of 10 studies across six countries from the Journal of Developmental & Behavioral Pediatrics found significant impairment of language and communication skills in early childhood development (O'Connor et al., 2025).
• A cross-sectional study conducted in Turkey of 709 children found incidents of increased delays in linguistic and personal-social skills in children assessed during the pandemic relative to pre-pandemic (Özkan, 2025).
• A study from South Korea found that children aged 30-36 months during the pandemic had a higher risk of neuro-developmental delays in the communication and social interaction domains compared with pre-pandemic children, especially for those of low socio-economic status (Lee et al., 2024).
• A broad systemic review of lockdowns in the U.S. generally found detrimental effects on child development (Taylor et al., 2025).

Why Early Development Matters

There is increased evidence of the adverse effects that lockdowns and school closures had on early childhood development. This is serious because these sorts of delays are not temporary. Developmental psychology research suggests that early language and social-communication deficits correlate with persistent behavioral, social, and academic difficulties later in life. 

Socioeconomic Inequality Widened

As some of these studies indicate, the impact was disproportionately felt among lower-income households. That makes intuitive sense. Most people of low socioeconomic status are not part of the "laptop class." They faced greater economic stressors during the pandemic. For children in lower-income families, lockdowns were compounded by smaller living spaces, limited access to digital learning tools, heightened parental stress, and fewer extracurricular opportunities. When you couple the unequal starting point imposed by socioeconomic differences with delays in foundational developmental skills, this creates a feedback loop that magnifies inequality. 

The Left and the Lockdown Lovers

I remember a time before the pandemic when income inequality was a cause célèbre for many on the Left. During the pandemic, those on the Left were more supportive of strict COVID measures than those on the Right (Pew Research). I bring this up because there is a sad irony here. During the pandemic, there was a strong correlation between political leanings and support for lockdown policies. Many of those who decried income inequality before the pandemic were some of the most enthusiastic of the Lockdown Lovers. Yet they overlooked how these COVID measures widened the very gaps they claimed to oppose. In effect, the group of people most concerned with income inequality were the ones who supported interventions that deepened the intergenerational divide that they had opposed pre-pandemic.

Lockdowns: A Disaster for Children and Society 

This brings us to the tragic punchline. The Lancet study, with a growing mountain of research, shows that lockdowns simply did not slow down child development. They did so most for the kids whose families had the fewest resources to weather the pandemic. These early delays increase the likelihood of reduced educational attainment, higher rates of special educational needs, and potential long-term economic consequences. These early developmental delays can echo through a child's entire life, affecting academic achievement, social skills, mental health, and even future economic productivity, with consequences that could persist for decades. While not all children will experience these outcomes, these risks are real, measurable, and consequential. Meanwhile, the lockdowns and the subsequent developmental delays directly widened the socioeconomic gaps that had historically been derided by the Left. The "lockdowns should protect the vulnerable" narrative did not simply fail. It harmed the people it was meant to protect. 

To call the lockdowns a policy misstep would be a woeful understatement. They were one of the worst peacetime public-policy decisions enacted in human history because it was an unprecedented social experiment recklessly implemented with disastrous results and very few benefits. At this point, what we as a society can do is acknowledge the harm done, do our utmost to help the children whose developmental skills were delayed with mitigation and remediation programs, hold decision-makers accountable for their failures, raise awareness of how public policy enacted in an emergency and done in the name of fear can backfire, and make sure that we never hand over power to people who are so addicted to their moral superiority that they cannot even be bothered to do a basic risk assessment or cost-benefit analysis before wreaking havoc on the people they swore to serve and protect. 

Open Borders Require Integration: Illiberal Immigrants and European Policies Create a Perfect Storm in Europe

Immigration has the potential to unleash freedom and economic progress. That is more than textbook theory. At least in a U.S. context, I am all in favor of more immigration. Immigrants to the United States make a net positive contribution to the U.S. economy, including low-skilled immigrants. Immigrants to the United States also help improve fiscal health. In spite of the politics surrounding immigration in the United States, the case for immigration for the United States is a no-brainer. When I look across the Atlantic, it makes me stop and wonder. 

Immigration Tensions in Europe

In a European context, there is a deep fault line between many natives and immigrant communities, whether those rifts are caused by fears of cultural displacement, economic competition, or the burden on the welfare state. A number of natives worry that the immigrants will erode a sense of shared identity while straining public services. This tension is amplified by the fact that immigrants might not fully adopt local norms and might vote for more illiberal policies and influence culture to be more illiberal. These anxieties are not merely theoretical. 

Religious Law Versus Secular Institutions

The French polling and market research firm Institut français d'opinion publique (IFOP) released quite the eye-opening poll about three weeks ago. This IFOP poll looked at the connection that French Muslims have to Islam and Islamism. One disturbing finding was that 46 percent of French Muslims believe that sharia law should rule France. It is down from the 54 percent in 2008, but it is still high. 

Another jarring finding is that 57 percent of French Muslims from the age of 18 to 24 years old said the rules of Islam are more important than France's secular laws. (see below). This is in contrast to the 44 percent of all French Muslims, thereby suggesting that France's Muslim youth is more extreme in its beliefs. Even a minority today can shaper future trends, particularly among younger generations, which has the real potential to shift community expectations or voting patterns over time. Even worse, 38 percent of French Muslims sympathize with at least some positions of Islamism. To think this is happening in a country that has valued secularism (laïcité) to the point where separation of civil and religious society is in  Article I of the French Constitution. 

Muslim Immigrants with Extremist Views Is a Problem Throughout Europe

France is not the only country that is having problems with integrating its Muslim immigrants. An inability of Sweden to integrate its Muslim immigrants was the takeaway of my 2023 trip to Sweden. Take a look at this JL Partners poll of British Muslims last year (see below). 32 percent of British Muslims want sharia law, which is the same percent of British Muslims who believe that Islam should be the national religion of Britain. 65 percent believe the Muslim holiday of Eid-al-Fitr should be a public holiday in Britain. 27 percent of British Muslims are okay with outlawing homosexuality, which is not quite double of the overall British public. 57 percent of British Muslims want the compulsory use of halal food in all schools and hospitals. Then there is the 52 percent of British Muslims that want to make it illegal to show a picture of Mohamed. These findings indicate some authoritarian views in which Muslim immigrants want to impose their way of life onto Britain. 

A high prevalence of Islamism was also a finding in a study from Criminological Research of Lower Saxony: 67.8 percent of Muslim schoolchildren believe that the Koran should take precedent over German secular law (Dreißigacker et al., 2023). This trend of believing that religious rules are more important than secular ones dates back at least to 2008 when the Berlin Research Agency for Social Research (WZB) conducted a survey of over 9,000 Muslims throughout Europe (Koopmans, 2008). The WZB also showed that European Muslims are more fundamentalist than European Christian counterparts, whether it is believing that there is only one true interpretation; Islam should not be modernized; you should not have gay friends; or the Jews should not be trusted. 

In 2024, the European Union's Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) conducted a survey of 10,000 Muslims in Europe and details the discrimination that Muslims face in Europe. This discrimination is worth mentioning because if a sizable portion of European Muslims perceives profiling and discrimination that can and does lead to lower trust in secular legal institutions. All things considered equal, that could make sharia law more attractive to Muslims that can feel that the system is not working for them.  

Integration Challenges Across Europe

As I brought up earlier this year in my criticism of using "Islamophobia" as a cudgel to silent dissent, this illiberalism that a significant number of these immigrants import from their home country and attempt to implement in Western society is quite problematic. For a free democracy to work, the institutions that protect individual liberty (e.g., women's rights, gay rights, minority rights, freedom of religion) must remain intact. Looking at Muslim-majority countries, there is a general lack of freedom of speech, LGBT rights, and gender equality norms, all of which has me concerned about Europe. 

The societies of Muslim-majority nations by and large have sharia-based legal expectations in an honor-based culture. Bringing in immigrants en masse that do not respect liberal and democratic norms, institutions, or mores causes societal erosion and create institutional friction when religious practices clash with liberal, democratic values. Even if a small subset support at least some Islamist positions, their presence can influence schools, neighborhoods, and political discourse, thereby creating pressures that affect broader society. 

From a libertarian standpoint, the concern is not cultural differences themselves, but rather how voter preferences translate into state power. In majoritarian systems, large groups favoring restrictions on speech, gender equality, religious freedom, or market exchange can shift electoral outcomes that democratically erode liberal institutions faster than they can be rebuilt. When those illiberal preferences translate into illiberal laws, the outcome is predictable: expanded state authority and fewer individual rights.

Why a More Liberal and Open Immigration Policy Works Better in the United States Than Europe

It is not only immigrants with illiberal views that are to blame here. I can throw shade at European governments and how they govern. The cultural, linguistic, fiscal, and economic reality of Europe in contrast to the United States can explain why open immigration does not work nearly as well in Europe as it does in the United States. American institutions are built around economic absorption and adaptability, whether that is a more flexible labor market, greater geographic mobility, or a skills-oriented immigration system that accelerates integration. The United States also has historically maintained a long-standing assimilationist culture that encourages new citizens to adopt a shared civic identity. 

Europe cannot make such a claim. Europe is plagued by rigid labor markets and large universal welfare states. After all, Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman argued that you cannot have both a large welfare state and open immigration. Furthermore, the linguistic and cultural fragmentation in Europe, not to mention the economic rigidity, slow integration and increase fiscal and social pressures in Europe. Aside from linguistic fragmentation, the complex licensing and labor laws along with a relatively regulated housing market make it more difficult for immigrants to move around to better job opportunities, which creates demographic mismatch. 

Postscript

Muslim immigrants who do not accept Western values combined with the lack of economic freedom and linguistic & cultural fragmentation on Europe's part create a cultural powder keg waiting to go off. Some potential policy solutions towards integration can include language programs, vocational training, and civic education, much like I suggested when providing alternative options to a burqa ban last month. Even though effective integration policies are theoretically available, Europe's institutional, cultural, and political realities have shown that widespread implementation is challenging.

In a free society, open borders are ideal. Human movement, voluntary exchange, and cultural pluralism are foundations of a free society. However, these ideals depend on institutional compatibility. A libertarian analysis cannot ignore that Europe's rigid markets, expansive welfare systems, and centralized governance structures prevent the kind of spontaneous-order integration that open borders require. Given Europe's current institutional design, the choice is not between "freedom" and "restriction," but rather between preserving and losing basic liberal order itself.

I would personally prefer a scenario in which Muslim immigrants can integrate into their respective newly founded country, but outside of some rare exceptions (e.g., Norway), that process has been quite elusive and hardly inspires confidence in me that matters will improve. 

Given the political reality and Europe's assimilation failures, there is a part of me tempted to say that restricting immigration, at least for now, seems to be one of the least-worst options available for safeguarding liberal institutions. I know such restrictions come with considerable tradeoffs, including the real potential for government expansion. But seeing how Europe is declining, it’s still tempting. Alternatively, scaling back the welfare state or a guest-worker or temporary-visa regime for sectors with high demand could also help with the matter, but that would be one option that would need other alternatives.

One thing for certain is that the status quo in Europe is untenable. Without such measures to improve integration or economic freedom, the resulting political, social, and legal friction continue to erode individual rights and push Europe towards an even more illiberal and authoritarian trajectory. 

Moody's Boosted Italy's Credit Rating, But Does Rome Really Deserve It?

For the first time in 23 years, the credit rating agency Moody's upgraded Italy's credit rating, from Baa3 to Baa2. Moody's finds that Italy has a "consistent track-record of political and policy stability which enhances the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms and investment implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP)." Moody's also anticipates greater growth and fiscal consolidation, as well as a gradual decline in Italy's government debt burden. This is a small but significant vote of confidence from international markets that Italy desperately needs. At the same time, Italy's economic foundations and long-running economic challenges tell a more nuanced story. This begs the question of whether Moody's upgrade is in alignment with the economic reality in Italy. 

Short-Term Positives

Before delving into my skepticism of Moody's upgrade, I do want to address some of the positives in favor of the upgrade: 

• As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in its most recent Article IV Consultation with Italy, Italy's economy has remained resilient and has shown modest GDP growth and output that has surpassed pre-pandemic levels (IMF, p. 4). 
• Given the political instability of frequent elections, it is refreshing to see policy stability relative to Italy's post-WWII historical norms. 
• Labor market reforms have led to a rise in permanent contracts. The permanent contracts contributed to an increase in the employment rate to a record of 62.7 percent (IMF, p. 5). 
• Volatility in Italy's financial markets in early 2025 has largely subsided (IMF, p. 8).
• The fiscal deficit shrunk by more than half to 3.4 percent in 2024 (ibid.), and the deficit is projected to shrink further (European Commission). Italy was able to return to a primary surplus, which helps contain the growth of government debt relative to GDP, though overall debt dynamics also depend on interest payments and growth. 

Long-Term Structural Issues

I am glad that Italy is putting in effort to avoid a disaster in the short-run. At least for now, Italy's economic stability helps the rest of the Euro Area since Italy is the third largest economy in the Euro Area. However, much like I detailed in 2018 when analyzing the Italian economy, Italy still has long-term structural issues that make it difficult to justify a long-term optimistic view:

• One of Italy's main issues to date is its large debt-to-GDP ratio at around 135 percent. Aside from Greece, it remains one of the highest in the developed world (IMF). A literature review and analysis released by the Mercatus Center this past October suggests that once the debt-to-GDP ratio gets above around 80 percent, investment may become hampered, interest-rate risk could become heightened, and long-term growth could slow down. This is not to say that Italy is disadvantaged, but Italy has its work cut out for it. 
• While it is not negative, Italy's GDP growth is modest, at 0.6-0.8 percent (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica). This is far from adequate if one of the main goals is to reduce debt burden or improve the living standards for Italian citizens. 

• Weak productivity growth has resulted in subdued GDP growth, below-target inflation, and high public sector debt, all of which create challenges for public finances (IMF, p. 4). 

• Industrial production has been on the decline. In March 2025, output was 1.8 percent lower than it was the previous year (OECD). This decline in output exposes a weakness in Italy's manufacturing base.
• Much of the growth in Italy's economy depends on the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) financing the NNRP program (European Commission). It is plausible that the economic growth could falter after this time-limited investment. Even worse, if the investments are not properly implemented, the debt dynamics might reassert themselves.
• There is a further drag in the declining birth rates and decline in the working-age population (IMF, p. 10-11).

Postscript

Moody's upgrade is defensible from a short-term perspective since fiscal consolidation, NRRP investment, recovery in consumer demand, and stable macroeconomic conditions lower the likelihood of an immediate crisis. However, weak growth trajectory, high debt, and structural rigidity all indicate that any optimism for the Italian economy should remain cautious at best. The upgrade reflects improved resilience as opposed to a legitimate, lasting transformation. Italy earns one, maybe two cheers, for macroeconomic stability, especially given its history. Nevertheless, Italy has quite the hill to climb if it hopes to achieve true economic strength.