Monday, November 16, 2009

歐巴馬这个星期会叩头吗?

Obama, just having left from Japan, is now continuing his nine-day Asian trip by visiting China.  Because China is becoming an increasingly important force in the realm of international politics, Obama needs to realize that setting a bilateral agenda with China is of much more importance than doing so with Japan.  This visit will, without a doubt, help set the stage to see the direction of Obama's foreign policy.  It might be shaky just because Obama started off his term by having his Secretary of Treasury, Timothy Geithner, accuse China of currency manipulation, not to mention the tariff on tires that Obama imposed on China a couple of months back.  These antagonistic acts set aside, Obama needs to keep a couple things in mind during his visit in China:

1) Don't bring up climate change!  China is not going to curtail its economy for some ficticious environmental problem, and I don't think you charismatic personality can convince them otherwise.  The Chinese know about charismatic leaders--Mao Zedong, remember?  Ever since this 1980s, the People's Republic of China has had an economy whose GDP has grown at least 7%, minus a couple of "bad years."  (By the way, "bad year" constitutes as 3% growth, which was American GDP growth pre-recession)  Historically speaking, China has been one to preserve internal stability.  And as of now, the only way they are able to do so is with economic growth.  It would be against their national interests to give into the global warming hype in order to see their economy crash.

2) Establish an American agenda.  Yes, I'm sure there will be a degree of kowtowing during your trip, I don't doubt that for a second, and it will most likely occur on the topic of human rights issues.  On some level, in order to have bilateral relations, you need to have some give and take.  But at the same time, Obama needs to develop a firm grasp on the sitauation.  For instance, if China brings up the Taiwan situation, Obama needs to remind Hu Jintao that Taiwan has been a sovereign nation-state for sixty years, and it is part of American foreign policy to protect Taiwan, much as it has been in the past.  Obama does also have to realize the symbiotic nature of the economic interdependence that has occurred between America and China since the Open Door Policy between Mao and Nixon.  Both have to find mutual ways to alleviate economic woes.  China has serious economic disparity, while America has serious issues with leaning towards socialism.  If anything, Obama should learn a thing or two from China after Mao's passing--free markets help market growth.  When Deng Xiaoping realized that releasing the Chinese economy from shackles of command economy translated into a higher GDP, he continued to increase the rate of privatization. China needs to raise its currency rate closer to that of the USA, while Obama has to stop hitting China with tariffs and have the Department of Commerce focus its investigations on China, whether its in garments or the PRC's dumping of steel wire garment hangers.  (The latter is no joke--you'd think our government would have something better to do than worry about steel wire garment hangers) By working together in a bilateral fashion to free up the markets, the two nations can clean house while maintaining economic interdependence and a sound alliance.

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